Monday, September 28, 2009

Stopped

My second attempt in a row at a bearish play on the market has failed and although both times I didn´t lose a dime it´s frustrating to see initial gains disapear. I asked myself if I did anything wrong with this latest trade and I don´t think I did. I didn´t see bears ¨"pressing" the downside that we have been seeing...in fact, I saw the opposite, I saw complacency on all of the trader indicators I follow. The only thing that was a bit worrysome from a bear´s perspective was that the VIX got a little bit too jumpy, but you know what...if you wait for every single indicator to line up perfectly you will never make a trade. I also made note that a bounce was possible but I believed that if the bears had control they wouldn´t let the market bounce as fiercly as it did today and I thought the bears for once were showing some game....looks like I might be wrong.

Could today just have been a day to shake out weak shorts (like me)? Mabey. But I´m not going to allow myself to go under water with my position and hope that this might be the case. We could also be setting up for a double top, but again, I´m not going to just allow myself to go in the red watching for a potential double top. What if the market goes to new highs? Better to either go short at the double top point or after the market has confirmed it than to sit there holding a position underwater.

I won´t have any regrets if the market takes a nose dive from this point after I got stopped out. I believe I gave my position plenty of wiggle room. If I see another good opportunity I will try again even if that means betting against the market at lower levels. I still have my long exposure via my microcap stocks which as I mentioned is 1 of the reasons why I am looking at short entry points.

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