Tuesday, September 1, 2009

and another thing....

Regarding the euro....although I mentioned that it's looking like an upside breakout is immanent, it would not suprise me at all to see a knee jerk selloff to as low as the 1.40 area first due to any weakness in the equity markets or other factors. My put position in UUP (which is largely dependant on the movement of the euro) expires in December and I'm giving it up untill that time to achieve my target. This position is an "all or nothing" type trade. Either I make 100% (or more) or risk loosing 100%. I would be willing to pull the plug early only if the reasons for making the trade are no longer there. In other words, if the uptrend is seriously violated AND sentiment turns unfavorable.

I haven't added the Euro call position just yet given my concern for ST equity market weakness. Yes, yesterday the euro actually went up as markets went down, but 1 day doesn't make a trend. For now I'm content with my put position in UUP which is fairly modest in size.

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