If you had one opportunity or one shot to seize everything you ever wanted. One moment. Would you capture it or let it slip?
I can't get this Eminem song out of my head because I've been given a very rare, very lucrative opportunity. I'm given an investment opportunity such that I will be able to buy a shit load of shares of a company that I believe strongly in at a massive discount to the current price which is still undervalued. There's no strings attached either - the shares are free and clear and I can sell anytime although it would not be in good faith to flip it. Right out the gate I would be up an instant 60%. If I take down the full available amount it would put me "all in". It's not a slam dunk though. Liquidity is still fairly low and if things taken a sudden turn for the worse, it would be difficult for me to unload this potentially large position at favorable prices. There is still the chance (albeit small) that I could get badly hurt or even wiped out.
I have vowed never to put myself in an all in situation like this. It's the number one rule I set for myself - but clearly this is a very unique opportunity. The prudent thing to do is to only buy a portion of the amount that is available to me but I feel it would be foolish to not take full advantage of the situation. When will I be able to get such an opportunity again? Probably never. The odds of me losing money on this appears to be slim. It would require some really, really bad luck for that to happen. If things stay status quo I will do well and if they go just moderately positive, I stand to make out extremely well.
The final decision hasn't been made yet but I'm leaning about 90% to go for it. If and when I do, it is no doubt going to be mentally taxing to the max but I plan to de-risk the trade by selling an amount that will cover my cost of investment once the stock goes up by a certain amount. Then at that point I can ride the remainder of the position on the house with no stress. I don't want to be too hasty in selling as I believe the stock should go a lot higher in the next year or 2 but given the size of my position I can't let it all ride to the point where I believe the stock will be fully valued - that would be too greedy...I will have to sell a portion before that point.
Several months ago I talked about the need to have brass balls in life...taking a sizable risk when the risk is worth taking. This is clearly one of those moments for me.
This blog will go dark for a while.
