Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Downside Reversal

I said in my last post that if you are going to go short in the face of a strong market you need to wait for signs that the market is ready to turn down. Today could have been that day. We've seen however many, many bear traps during this historic rally since March so I emphasize when I say that 1 day doesn't make a trend. Just before I went out for dinner I put in a stop buy order for QID the double short NASDAQ 100 to buy me in if the market did a reversal today which I suspected was a high probability event. Well, I came back to the hotel just now I noticed I got bought in. This position is not only a bet for short term weakness but also a hedge for my microcap positions which have done very well for me. My entry for this position is 22.67 and my stop is at 21.94 which would require the NASDAQ 100 to exceed today's high and thus render this reversal a false one. This is an example of setting a stop wherby I would be clearly wrong and yet a 3% loss is something I can live with. I will tighten the stop if see something serious I don't like but I won't widen it. 21.94 is my uncle point and if I get whipsawed, I get whipsawed.

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