Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Dollar trashed

The dollar opened today with a massive gap down. Could it have been triggered due to the UN's plea for a replacement of the dollar as a reserve currency over the weekend? According to the UN, the US dollar should be replaced with a global currency that is overseen by a new bank of the world. A currency needs to be backed by something. In the case of fiat currencies, it's backed by the government. Who would back such a global currency given that there's no government behind it? In order for it to have some sort of credibility, how about gold? hmmmmmm.....

I'm just rambling here...I'm not a gold bug I'm just trying to make sense of this move in gold here. It's mainly being driven by the dollar dropping no doubt, but there's something else at work here because longer term gold has been trending upwards in the EURO and YEN as well.

This UN news is probably just an accelerator of a trend already in place. Is gold in a bubble? Who gives a fuck...I just want to make money. Do you? Or do you play the market to want to test out your intelligence? The important question is, does it have legs? As it stands now I think it does.

There was lots of talk here on BNN (Canadian version of CNBC) about gold. I would say it was about 50/50 regarding bullish sentiment vs. bearish sentiment. One guy said that gold going back to $950 would be a good entry point. I say fat chance to that. If this is a real breakout in gold, we will NOT see $950 reached again. If we do, gold is likely to head a lot lower. As I said before, true breakouts force you to chase them. No convenient pullbacks are permitted....and pullbacks will likely be intraday and/or shallow. It would be a gift for those who missed to boat for gold to back to $950. Remember what I said about the market giving you a gift...that gift is usually guilotine in disguise made for your head. I reiterate that $985 is a line in the sand...I'll even stretch it to $980.

I'll discuss the ST outlook for equities tomorrow morning.

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