Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Beware of bull trap

This move up we've seen out of the "trading range" doesn't feel right. Pull/call ratios have collapsed and bond yields have spiked quite a bit. I smell a trap...it feels too easy.  I've been mentioning lately how I felt that bonds yields were close to  a medium or long term bottom and so it's not too surprising to me to see this action but as I've said before, if you look at when notable corrections began, it coincided after a period of rising bond yields. Now mind you, one can make the case that since bond yields had declined so much, there could be plenty more unwind (rise) in bond yields before the market runs into trouble. That could very well be the case, however, it's all about risk reward. The risk/reward to go long when the market is overbought, put/call ratios have collapsed and bond yields have spike is simply not good. That's not necessarily an invitation to go short either but for a small ST downside play it's looking tempting. From a longer term perspective, there is still plenty of potential bullish fuel as fund flows continue to show cautiousness. There was a modest inflow last week which suggests maybe some folks are starting to poke their heads out from their hole..maybe.just in time for Mr. Market to whack it back down one more time before the real upside breakout occurs. I might end up being too cute here getting a little too fixated on the ST, but again, it's about risk/reward and I just don't like it here on the long side at this moment.