Saturday, September 26, 2009

Downside has been different implying correction may be longer lasting

Quick post from Madrid. I´ve noticed that the downside we´ve seen so far has ocurred later in the day with the market weakening into the close as opposed to the morning gap down and flatline type action that has been the norm since mid March. Recall how I´ve said in the past that the latter type of action is bull market pullback behavior and the former is bear market behavior. Does this mean the bear is back? Not neccessarily. What it may suggest is that a more sustained correction will be seen. If the bear is back then giddy up, so long as there´s a trend which I can ride I´ll be happy.

The rydex jokers by the way have been buying the dip so far getting burned. The rydex ratio continues to suggest more downside is comming. We are ST oversold enough to see a bounce but there´s still room for another downside push of about 1.5-2% before getting completely ST oversold. I´m going to keep my QID position with my stop at 22.72. If we get a bounce it´s possible my stop could get hit and it does so be it. But, since I still see more room for downside I´m going to sit tight. If markets gap down signficantly on Monday I will likely close out the position.

2 comments:

  1. Nasdaq still the strongest index of the year.

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  2. true that...but the NAZ was showing relative weakness during that last dip until today of course

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