we're at an interesting junctior right here. On a ST basis the market is now extremely overbought but counteracting this is the rise in skepticism from ST traders who once again have sold into this rally or bet against it (as per the Rydex data). AAII sentiment shows 44% bears 31% bulls. Such relentless, stubborn bearishness I tell you. If it wasn't for the market being so overbought ST, I would be expecting a big move up in the market. But you know what... the last time I saw these conditions the market somehow found a way to go even higher despite the extreme overbought condition...what ended up happening was a sideways grind for a few days followed by a rise. With the NASDAQ 100 at new YTD highs it's not looking good for the bears here.
Will this happen again? I think so...and that means the idea of going back to 1000 is no longer looking feasable.
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