Monday, October 12, 2009

Not much to say at this point

The short term picture isn't really clear to me now but anytime I find this is the case whatever the prevailing trend which is in place usually continues. Therefore, this suggests we will continue to go higher in the weeks ahead despite potential 1-3 day pullbacks.

My strategy continues to be to focus more on small/micro cap plays with a longer term emphasis and less time on ST trading. In bull markets you buy and hold, in bear markets you trade. I will look for hedging opportunities at times I feel the market is overbought/vulnerable but for the most part I will error on the side of not being overly exposed on the short side.

Do you feel at least a bit uncomfortable buying and holding? If you do that's a good sign that buy and hold is the right thing to do. Why do you think most people fail at investing/trading? It's because they do the comfortable thing....the obvious thing. I know I feel uncomfortable...why do you think I keep looking for hedging opportunities? Why then don't I just stop waisting my time and go all in long riding this bull to the max that I keep preaching about? It's because this is a game of probabilies and uncertainty and I won't make the mistake of ever thinking I got this game figured out for good.

For example, this spring and summer has no doubt crippled or wiped out many traders/investors because they thought they had the market all figured out as they bought into the bearish dogma of Roubini, Schiff, Whitney, Prechter and the other mega bears who gained sage status during 2008. These people were convinced without a doubt that the rally off the March low was a bear market rally destined to fail and they bet against it heavily with the notion that within a couple of months the market would be at new lows....most of those people probably can't rub 2 dimes together anymore given their account balance.

I vowed to myself never, ever to make this fatal mistake...to think that I got it all figured out and put myself in a position to take a massive loss if my convictions turn out to be incorrect.

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