Once again, rydex traders have sold into rally and the cash flow measures are at levels that suggest distrust of the rally. In fact the cash flow adjusted rydex ratio is at about the same level as when the market dipped to 1020 in early October.
Although the put/call ratio was quite low yesterday, all in all, the ST indictors I track aren't showing excessive bullishness which means the benefit of the doubt continues to go to the bulls and any pullbacks are likely to be light.
AAII sentiment came in today at 47% bulls 34% bears which is only moderate bullishness. These guys continue to only show bullishness kicking and screaming. When we see the ratio hit 2:1 bulls vs bears, then I'd start to get concerned shorter term.
Bottom line: with the market making a fresh new 52 week high without extremes in bullish sentiment it's going to be tough for the bears to see any significant downside traction and markets still have room for another push higher.
Bears need a negative catalyst like a miss from Apple or Google.
Proving the point I made yesterday about the skepticism surrounding DOW 10K check out these news headlines
Dow Breaks 10,000: Don't Get Caught Up in "Euphoria"...
An Equity Bubble in the Making?
Concerns About the Tone of the Market's Current Advance
Does the Good News Point to a Market Top?
U.S. Stock Markets Are Disconnected from Reality
Dow Theory: Party While It Lasts
Dow 10k: The Higher They Rise, The Harder They Fall
No comments:
Post a Comment