Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Market sucking in weak longs

I love browsing some of the popular bearishly biased blog sites to monitor what the lemmings are thinking. Not that I think all bears are lemmings, it's just that these sites became very popular with the lemmings in 2008 when the bear was in full force. 2009 and 2010 sent a lot of these lemmings to the slaughter house and are now nowhere to be seen but there are still quite a few remaining as well as new ones who have joined the frey. A lot of the remaining lemmings have vowed to "play both sides" of the market after the spanking they took last year but they are still bears at heart making them weak longs if they do actually go long.
A lot of these lemmings it seems, are buying into this rally or are willing to buy on dips. At the very least, they are bracing for further upside. Meanwhile, another weak long the "Rev Shark" over at realmoney.com who deep down is also a bear at heart and for the most part has made disastrous calls at major turning points this year by getting overly bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms, has also turned bullish.

When you got bears turning bullish like this it's a dangerous sign because these guys are the toughest to be convinced of a rally and so when they are, it indicates the market is probably going to soon run out of "greater fools" to keep the rally going. Then you got other technically oriented types getting all bulled up because the market has broken some "trend line" or what have you. The guy who runs my charting service decisionpoint.com has just issued a LT buy signal when just few days after the July low issued a LT sell signal after the so called "death cross". Lastly, there was a huge spike in weekly mutual fund inflows which in the past year has led to immanent ST or IT tops.

Not everything is giving a clear cut sell signal but rarely does that happen. What is rare and actually happening is when you see lemmings from all walks of life turn bullish. This can't be a good sign especially when the market is overbought, the VIX is near 20 and the majority of the rally has been done via gap up action. There are quite a few unfilled gaps that lie well below.

For the first time in a long time I'm eying put options even though I know there can still be more headfakes and marginal upside.

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