Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Bears got badly trapped and hurt

Markets did a gap and run move again today except this time to the upside. It was rather unmerciless to the bears who I know for the most part are hiding somewhere in the FAZ/SKF/SRS troika of death complex which got destroyed today. Bond yields shot up again today which as I mentioned before is not good if they keep climbing further from here.

Browsing the bear blogs lately I've noticed it's somewhat of a ghost town in terms of comments from the drones that follow them. Usually you would see a lot of whining and complaining from them on a day like this but this time...it's rather silent. I doubt they have converted or given up for good....but rather they are moving along the to stage 3 or 4 of the 5 stages of grief I mentioned before. Just like after the tech bubble burst it took a solid year if not more for the bagholders who got duped into believing the hype of the flavor of the months (this time around it's Roubini, Schiff, Whitney).

I've outlined my bullish thesis but I don't like the way the market gapped up like this nor do I like it how bonds have sold off. If this sort of action continues I will be inclined to believe that this is in fact a bear market rally abliet one that may go higher.

I'm not sure what tommorow will bring....probably some morning weakness but after that I'm not sure....if not too much damage is done we could see the bulls take this to 930 by the end of the week.

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