Thursday, May 7, 2009

Bears are quick to celebrate any marginal downside

Was this morning's "reversal" it? Is the top in? Could be but I have my doubts. First of all...true reversals tend to happen later in the day not this quickly and I've already seen quite a few "the top is in" posts from the wrong way bears who seem to be celebrating on just any marginal signs of weakness. I noted this behavior before. I remember a similar type of sentiment from a bullish strategist who got humiliated badly as the market kept falling in the fall while he was pounding the table that the market was a screaming buy. There was a day when the market had a decent 1 day pop and he got so excited that you would have thought the market just make a new 52 week high. After that day the market cratered to make new lows and he was silenced and humiliated once again. This is what the market will do to you from time to time especially when you go against it trying to call a turn.

At this point however, both sides of the market look dangerous. If you go long you could easy get stopped out due to how overbought the market is only to see things turn higher quickly after and if you go short you are fighting a strong trend that only a few moments ago made a new high.

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