Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Is being bearish the "in" thing? Sure seems like it

Here's a post I found on stocktwits tonight

"all this short talk..lol..new investor..any advise on where to get some good reading or research on shorting stock? THANKS!!!

This further confirms my thesis that there's too many investors/traders/gamblers whatever you want to call them, who are bearish fading this rally.

This kind of reminds me of the attitude new retail investors had about tech stocks during the dot com bubble days. Could it be possible that we have seen the bursting of a short bubble? Call me a Larry Kudlow wannabe but I think this could actually be case!

One of the surest ways to have investing success is to fade the retail sheep. By the time the retail masses are aware of a trend/theme it's quite often late in the game which means that if you fade them too early it could be painful for a while but in the end...and it might take several months....the retail sheep ALWAYS GET PUNISHED for their herd like behavior and give up any gains they made and then some. I saw it happen first hand with the tech bubble and the energy/commodities bubble just last year.

Thus consistent with the smart money/dumb money indicator, the attitude that the typical retail investor has may indicate, dare I say it, that this bear market could in fact be over!....whoa! Ok, maybe this is implying too much. But I don't think its a stretch that based upon how crowded the bear side is, we could potentially see a lot more upside in the months ahead to shake the lemmings off the tree before the bear comes back with any teeth....just a thought....but a serious one.

No comments:

Post a Comment