Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Consumer confidence surges past expectations.....but is this priced in already?

No surpise there for me. Another "greenshoot" but given the market's big run up these past several weeks I think this may be discounted to a large degree already and we may not see much upside today especially with the banks lagging...we may even end up down. However, I have no strong inclination one way or the other.

There have only been three other times we've seen the Consumer Confidence index drop to at least a three-year low, then jump at least 10 points the next month. Those were April 1974, February 1975 and April 2003. The first one was a dud, but the last two both led to one-year gains of +20% in the S&P 500.

Again, yet another similarity to the March 2003 rally...

To balance out my bullish views as of late, I'm going to examine the bear case later on today. It's important to be aware of the arguments for both sides and not be biased.

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