Is value over growth overbought? Crypto crash

The commodities complex has cooled off a bit as I had expected. If you look at long term futures prices some key commodities such as lumber, corn and  iron ore are trading at significant discounts to spot prices. This strongly suggests that their recent spikes are not sustainable. If you look at copper however, the discount is modest and so that suggests current prices are more likely to have limited downside. If that's the case, copper producers and exploration companies with attractive late stage projects are going to do quite well longer term. Shorter term, it can be dicey. I'm definitely seeing a lot of inflation talk which is giving me contrarian vibes to expect at least a reprieve in such concerns, but as I stated, some commodities appear much more vulnerable than others. 

I'm also sensing a lot of negatively towards tech relatively speaking. If inflation pressures cool this will be a positive for tech. At the same time, the love for financials and to a lesser degree energy may be indicative that the value over growth trade is due for at least a temporary reversal. Am I getting too cute? Maybe, but as I said before, you don't chase. You gotta zig when others are zagging. I saw a recent chart showing that according to a BOA survey, Fund managers have fled the tech sector by a historically extreme amount and have embraced value/cyclical sectors. Again, not the ideal time to be embracing such a trade.  

The crypto crash has been the main focus in the financial headlines. It started with TSLA no longer accepting BTC as payment followed up by a China ban on their banks dealing with crypto in any way. Has the bubble burst? I think it has. A 40% drop in BTC is reminiscent of the NASDAQ bubble bursting in 2000. A lot of crypto bulls are saying "we've seen this movie before. BTC has crashed several times but always came back". True but that's only because on each revival of BTC it  was able to recruit a fresh batch of greater fools. Where are the greater fools going to come from this time? At the recent peak you had institutional money embracing BTC. They were the last bastion of fools. Now, they are bag holders. I suspect now that the only thing that will keep BTC afloat are short squeezes and greater fool buying from ST traders.  You may also get one last hurrah from those who were waiting to "buy the dip". That can only get you so far however. I suspect most of the would be buyers are already in which means only one way to go longer term and that's down.  I suspect we will see lower highs and lower lows now with BTC and it will ultimately go sub $10K within 6-12 months maybe even less.