I just read a scathing article on Buffett for which he was subject to criticism for the losses he took on the airlines, his refusal to buy anything in March and his lack of tech exposure. Many are essentially calling him a dinosaur, an old man who's lost his way. Let me tell you something...I remember hearing the same thing in 1999 during the tech mania as people were critical of Buffet's "old economy" stock picking. Ultimately Buffet was vindicated. In 1999 just like now, large cap growth, tech in particular, was trouncing value in parabolic fashion. When the tech bubble burst in 2000 it all reversed. Value, small caps in particular, trounced growth for 7 years. In 2007 the trend reverted back to growth over value and has been in place since, especially during the last 4 years. Since COVID, growth over value has gone parabolic placing us in a similar situation to 1999 right at the time when Buffet is getting slammed yet again.
Is history set to repeat? Are we close to the point where value starts to outperform growth in a big way? We may very well be but I need to see evidence of a shift happening before making a move. I would like to see at least a 6 month period where value is outperforming growth and doing so in a stealth-like or scoffed at manner. In the past couple of years anytime value showed any hint of coming back to life there were plenty of bottom callers eager to claim the long awaited turn was upon us only to get egg on their face. I wouldn't want to see such behavior.
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