Sunday, September 7, 2014

Game over with Greenstar

As expected there was something sinister going on with Greenstar and mgmt finally coughed it up. There is no chance it will ever trade again and depending on what the status of the company and its assets are, investors will either get a fire sale salvage value or nothing at all. My greatest fear when this debacle first began was that the asshole CEO Guan was purposely sabotaging the company to get it delisted so that he could in effect take it private and try to run away with the assets somehow or have GRE sold to an arm's length 3rd party for peanuts (and then later getting involved with them) knowing that investors would be inclined to accept such deal so as to salvage at least something. Why would he do such thing? Because he's either a ruthless, greedy asshole who was unhappy about how Greenstar was being valued by the market or he ran into personal financial problems, needs money and is setting up to offer GRE to lenders/creditors at a fire sale price in exchange. It's also possible that the company is a sham but if that was the case how and why did they start a dividend then raise it 50% and why would|Guan put $300K of his own money in the PP? Nobody knows the truth of Guan's motives right now but he's either either fucked up mentally or is a sneaky, conniving asshole who did everything he could to stall the board from uncovering his hidden agenda for as long as possible. In late August after several weeks of haggling/stalling he finally agreed to fly in the auditors so that they could complete their work. He even authorized to pay for their flights. Then when they got there he made excuses to deny them access to the bank and tax info they needed. What piece of shit.

If Greenstar is indeed a viable company and the financials were at least mostly accurate then there is a lot of value that would be theoretically available to investors. Assuming the above, GRE would have at least 0.60/sh in cash by now with at least $1/sh in working capital. Hanfeng was another Chinese company that went through a debacle similar to that of Greenstar and their situation appeared worse yet their board managed to salvage a deal whereby the company is to be liquidated to a 3rd party giving shareholders a payout of what looks like to be 0.60-0.65/sh which is not bad considering the 0.71 price the stock last closed at. If GRE is indeed viable and Guan is trying to take this company private on the cheap by purposely not co-operating with the board then there's hope that something could be salvaged such as  0.40- 0.50/sh. That would be a fucking ridiculous low ball value but I'm sure most people would take it. One thing we have going for us is that there are Chinese investors who are also holding the bag and are going to go after Guan. They would be much more effective in getting legal authorities to take action against him than any Canadian would. I know Newman is also going to exhaust every means possible to salvage something for the sake of investors and his own.  If however the company was a mirage like APX was then forget about it. The only recourse for investors would have is to go after Guan personally and the board and that will probably not yield much if anything. 

Despite everything I said, I think it's best to not have much hope and assume the worst outcome here. This is not to say don't bother trying to recover something but rather to assume that this will most likely end up being a total write-off. False hope is a terrible thing to have.