Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Bank of Canada Statement

The bank of Canada today cut its Economic outlook. Here's the just of it

“Uncertain global and domestic economic conditions are delaying the pick-up in exports and business investment, leaving the level of economic activity lower than the bank had been expecting". 

They downgraded their outlook for Canadian and US growth next year. They  said the threat of deflation is now greater than inflation and Canada would not be operating at full production untill the end of 2015 which is another way of saying they don't seen any inflationary pressures building.  As a result they dropped the "were gonna raise interest rates soon" threat they had been making for over a year, which I and probably a lot of others knew was bogus as they are pretty much handcuffed until the US moves first. 

This BOC statement says a lot. It's LT bullish for the market for it shows that we are nowhere close to seeing the classic signs of peak.  Towards the end of an economic expansion and thus bull market, the outlook from central banks and people in general is rosy, not sour like this.  More importantly, near the peak we start to see signs of "overheating" which results in rising inflation to the point where it becomes a concern for central banks and they respond by tightening interest rates. When they tighten to the point where the yield curve gets inverted it sows the seeds for the next recession. We are nowhere close to overheating as there remains a large output gap as BOC noted and money is far from being tight - it's at the opposite extreme. 

Now, just because monetary and economic conditions are still bull market friendly  does not mean the market can't have serious corrections. We saw such in 2010 and 2011. What it does mean is that you should continue to be a LT optimist and continue to look for long opportunities while ignoring the doom and gloomers. Of course, you should be mindful of corrections and not get greedy after the market has had such a large run. After all, big corrections do hurt and there's no guarantee that the bull market can't end until monetary conditions are tight. Trim into strength, raise cash, hedge if you must but don't put yourself in a position where you are net short. Always remember though that trends will always surprise people in their strength and duration and so very, very few people fully capitalize as they tend to get out too early. Even those broken clock bears who were right in being negative in 2008 did not come close to fully profiting from the collapse as most covered shorts around 1100 (according to my anecdotes).


9 comments:

  1. Don't know if you had a chance to look at Muddy Water's report on NQ Mobile. Whether the company is a legit or fraud I can't say, but it does shows how quickly confidence can erode and investors head for the exit when it happens to a Chinese company. Of course it's not helping as people still have Sino-Forest fresh in mind. Sometime it seems the fraud allegation itself is enough to put the company over the cliff.

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  2. Didn't see that report. MW has certainty built a reputation for spotting chinese frauds and so it's not surprising to see people run for the exits. I don't think the allegation itself is enough to do in a company. If they are legit and don't require any external financing to keep their business running, they will be just fine and the stock price will recover. In 2012 MW issued a report on EDU and hammered the stock big time but it has recovered all the losses since then. Don't know the story about this company though.

    I would agree that it's not going to help sentiment improve if another fraud is uncovered but there are hundreds of Chinese stocks out there yet only a handful have been declared as frauds by MW or others which means 95%+are indeed legit. Therefore, it's wrong for investors to paint the sector with the Sino Forrest brush. This has allowed for a great opportunity to buy solid, legit companies dirt cheap and some of them like GRE are ridiculously cheap. I'm quite confident GRE is legit after doing my DD. Given the fundamentals and how ridiculously low the valuation is, I believe it's simply a matter of time before the stock goes up significantly as people will eventually realize what I do. Next yr alone the company will earn half of what the present market cap is. This is outrageous! But if GRE and other dirt cheap, legit Chinese companies still don't get any respect and stay cheap for a prolonged period of time, they will most likely get a bid to go private. cho.v just recently got such a bid which was a 40% premium to the market price. Good fundamentals get recognized one way or another although a go private bid will often not allow investors to get full value for their shares even if the bid is at a premium.

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  3. Just took a quick look at MW's track record since their Sino Forrest call. It's lousy. If they get this one wrong I'm adding them to the long list of guru turned goat which includes the likes of Roubini, Schifff and ECRI

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  4. Yea I agree with you that some investors might be making some serious mistakes if they throw out the baby with the bathwater just because company is based in China.

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  5. Would like to encourage you to post your track record here (equity curve), if not on a daily basis, at least monthly.

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  6. daily? lol this guy is not a day trader.. i think in the beginning he was more into the day-to-day and week-to-week activities but found that too stressing in predicting short term moves and is now focusing on longer-term now. beside he doesn't need to prove anything to us on how much dough he is making.

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  7. i for one have been reading this blog pretty early on and I just love his analysis on markets, companies and sometimes blog posts about life in general. i took some investment/personal finance classes at a local college and i don't think i learned anything close what this blog has shown me. i don't want to say it's life changing as that would be overly dramatic but the deep understanding of markets and life is that i wish someone would've told me when i was a lot younger. finally i would rather he doesn't feel obliged to post any sort of returns on a short-term basis and just go with whatever is natural. after all, this is his blog =)

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  8. It is definitely his right to post or not to post. Long term results are definitely important. However, my humble opinion is that volatility of equity curve is also just as important. If we have a maximum drawdown of 50% in the interim, that is no fun at all. MW could easily have made the same argument about long term in defence of their lousy track record so far.

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  9. Thanks for the props Dennis. Anon, I only make mention of my yr end return. For me, that's the only one that counts. I'm not interested in starting some sort of a newsletter or advisory service and so I don't see the need to post ST returns. My equity curve can be volatile as I tend to hold very concentrated positions. At the end of this year it will be 5 years since I've starting trading/investing full time and I'll post the results I've had. I use this blog as my trading diary. I also appreciate feedback and interaction with others and I enjoy sharing some nuggets of wisdom I've learned. I'd say there's no more than 10 regular visitors to this site and that's perfectly fine by me!

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