Back in the saddle

It took about 10 days but things eventually normalized here in the nodice household. Korea was a unique experience no doubt and I'm impressed with the country overall. I visited 3 cities including Seoul. Here are some notable things about South Korea from my perspective:

• just about as "developed" as North America with Seoul being the most. For example, lots of people appeared to be using smart phones and you can get HD TV and other tech luxuries.
• streets everywhere I went were well maintained (I never saw 1 pothole) and sidewalks/public areas very clean
• lots of small businesses as opposed to "super stores" like Walmart and Costco.
• very few homeless people and beggars relative to Toronto
• public transportation very cheap - about $0.90 Canadian for a bus/subway ride. (It's $3 in Toronto)
• subway in Seoul is probably the best in the world....you are even able to use your phone!
• taxis about 50-65% cheaper vs Toronto
• gas is expensive - about $1.85/ltr but you have the option of using LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) which goes for about $0.90/ltr as there are several LPG fueling stations available
• coffee very expensive vs Toronto - about double the price
• clothing somewhat expensive vs Toronto
• generally speaking, anything imported is expensive due to heavy taxes/tariffs slapped on them notably autos which is why probably 90% of the cars on the road are from local manufactures (Kia, Hyundai)
• food is cheap expect for certain imported items which can be very expensive (such as watermelons)
• tipping for any service not required nor expected
• Koreans are peaceful people. I got the impression that the crime rate is very low there
• Koreans are noticeably slimmer than North Americans. I saw very few obese people
• Koreans are respectful towards foreigners. I have never once felt anyone had a "get the hell out of my country" feeling toward me. In fact, I often experienced the opposite. Being one of the very few white guys around gave me somewhat of a celebrity status! My wife was both a little jealous and amused!
• Korean kids all learn English as a second language (but most are far from fluent) and spend several additional hours studying via private schools, tutoring or study groups. I remember walking the streets at 11 pm seeing high school kids going home from class. My wife says that this is the result of the poor public schooling system which apparently is a big weakness of Korea.

The late John Templeton was keen on Korea as an area for investment and I can see why. Overall, I got the impression that Korea is a thriving nation with hard working people. By no means am I an expert on Korea...this is just the impression I got.

Switching gears now towards the market. Nothing has changed in my outlook. I continue to believe we are in a consolidation phase here with risks of an upside surprise as opposed to a down one which so many appear to be bracing for. Based upon what I hear on BNN and read in the paper I get the distinct impression that investors are bracing themselves for a major dip in the market. I've said this before, such a thing will be hard to come by when everyone has there guard up even if it's warranted. I mentioned in my previous post to look for a situation where AAII sentiment hits 2:1 bears vs bulls. We just about got that last week but the market isn't quite in a full oversold condition. So, in such cases the likely outcome is a rally but probably not a powefull multi-month one that takes us to significant new highs. If downside continues it would likely be quite limited and would then put the market in a better position to have a powerful and sustainable run like last fall.

Again, I'm not going to try and play the ST wiggles that I think could transpire...that's not my game. I'm going to keep doing what I've been doing which is to maintain core longs with a cash buffer waiting to take advantage of a truly sold out market or unique opportunity. I'm positioned in way that allows me to be comfortable with either outcome in the ST that I described above.

My wife and I at the top of a mountain we had climbed in Jeong Ju, Korea