Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Everyone, bulls and bears alike calling for a January correction

I've had a pretty good sense in the past knowing when the "correction" trade is overcrowded.  I  gotta say that I definitely sense that now. Bulls are on guard for a correction and bears are calling for one too. In fact, I've never seen such a unanimous call for a correction as I do now in a long time. Near the low of the day I saw a headline from bigcharts.com that said some portfolio manager claimed the January correction has started. The market didn't even go in the red for the year yet and this guy's already saying the correction has started?  Talk about being over-eager.  I believe this group think call for a correction means that a correction either won't happen or will be quite shallow, well below expectations.

Here's another thing I'm noticing. That data that is coming out lately is suggesting more and more that the economy is gaining further traction and the recovery will be self sustaining. Initial weekly claims for unemployment last week plummeted to 388K, bringing the 4 week average very close to the 400K mark which in the past has signaled strong and persistent job gains. Meanwhile the Chicago PMI soared to a 30 year high. Remember what I said a few weeks back....bullish sentiment can remain chronic and be ignored by the market when evidence of a self sustaining recovery start to appear. Well, it looks to me like this may be happening. In such cases, it's difficult for the market to gain any downside traction because the data is just too good while too many people are sitting on the sidelines.

I know it's piggish to expect the market to go higher still given the run we've had, but I gotta tell you I think it's going to happen without much in the way of downside....at least for now.




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