pullback probably comming soon

I haven't made a trade for over a month and a half and I've been largely out of the market since then. I get very tempted to play some ST moves i.e. the game of chicken but I've refrained from doing so for a couple reasons. The first one being is that I'm not getting enough of a "feel" for it. In other words, I can't seem to get a good read on the market when it comes to the ST which gives me a lack conviction to hold positions. I mentioned previously how the Rydex ratio was giving a good buy signal but I couldn't pull the trigger because other issues were bothering me, namely, the gap up nature of market advances (which I call poor upside action since it tends to eventually lead to full retracement). When I get conflicting signals like this I do nothing.

The other reason for my inactivity is that I'm a huge soccer fan and so the world cup has been an additional distraction to me. I've watched most of the games which have started from 7:30am with the last one being over at about 4:20pm or so.

The market is now ST overbought and so a pullback is in the cards here. I'm not sure if it will be a deep one this time around but I strongly suspect that by the time the summer is over there will be another "scare" in the market or 2 that sends us back towards the 1040 low. This advance has been built on for the most part, morning strength and I know I sound like a broken record saying this but I don't trust such action and view it as unsustainable with full retracement likely sometime down the road. Now, I know very well that if I turn out to be right the market is not going to make it easy for bears to profit it from it. If too many people try to game the pullback they will get squeezed and squeezed and squeezed until they give up and once they do that's when you get the air pockets to the downside that kind of come out of nowhere like what we saw with the flash crash.

The news out of China is a mild positive but nothing I would take too seriously. I remain neutral here longer term. I will indeed still try to do some shorter term trading but if in doubt I will still stay out. One might say to me " hey you booked some decent gains this year so far, why not just let loose and take a gamble or 2?" I'm sorry but I don't treat any part of my account as the "house's money". Yes, it does give me some breathing room and the ability to be aggressive when there's a strong edge but I will not take reckless gambles simply because I'm up. This is mistake many amateurs make. One of the rules I have for myself is to treat every dollar like it's my starting capital. I do realize however that sometimes I'm overly cautious and miss opportunities because I'm too picky (my friends would say the same thing about me when it came to girls back in the day). That's something I need to work on.