While so many people continue to scoff as this historic bull market run mindlessly dismissing it as a function of manipulation via the "PPT" few people have noticed or failed to acknowledge out of denial the following
1. The prices of "toxic assets" i.e. mortgage securities have been rising sharply
2. Current 12 month forward earnings estimates by analyst for the SPX is $83.5 which if becomes a reality would be the 2nd highest level of earnings recorded ($87.7 was the record for the year of 2006) Now I know what you’re thinking....who is to say these analysts will be correct in their forecasts especially given their track records. Well, as I've said before, during expansions analysts tend to constantly underestimate earnings and during contractions tend to overestimate them. Therefore, if anything, the $83.5 estimate will prove too conservative!
3. The retail index as measured by the RLX is only about 8% away from making an ALL TIME HIGH! Yet everyone is talking about how the consumer is dead.
4. The home builders index (XHB) has broken out of a multi-month base.
5. Leading indicators have been rising for 12 straight months.
The losers I all track keep griping about the PPT, how the market is rigged, how this run has been on low volume and how Main Street is still in such bad shape. I tend to see a lot of people scratching their head saying "what has changed?”. Well, you can go ahead and believe what these losers believe, you can go ahead and make your investment decisions based upon what see on main street or you can listen to the stock market and other leading indicators which are yelling and screaming that things are about to get better in a big way which few people it seems want to listen. So many people seem to refuse to believe that times can actually be good again. Everyone is so wrapped up in negativity. All the stock market communities whether it's seeking alpha, yahoo, or marketwatch continue to exhibit overwhelming negativity from the joe blows that post messages and they all believe in the same fucking stupid notions of this "PPT". To all you PPT believers out there...if there is such a PPT and if the market is so rigged to only go up how do you explain the greatest collapse in 70 years that took place 2 years ago? Where was the PPT then? What a bunch of fucking pathetic losers. What a nation of permabears we live in. It's so amazing how people went from believing in a "new era" of permanent prosperity 10 years ago to becoming miserable, bitter, negative news craving SOBs who are actually rooting for economy to collapse and are oblivious to all the evidence around them that the skies are going to be brighten up soon.
Last year was bizzaro 2000. This year it's bizzaro 2001.
I really need to take some time off from blogging because I'm behind in my research and it's been frustrating watching some stocks I had on my radar take off without me because I didn't do enough DD to pull the trigger.
This might be my last post for a while
Great comments.
ReplyDeleteI've made the point before that people in 1945 and 1982 were just as pessimistic. And at those points in time the US had just experienced 10-15yrs of 'going nowhere'. However, those points of time were also the start of big bull markets.
We've had 10yrs of 'going nowhere' and people expect it to continue. However, I'm starting to believe that we may actually be at the beginning of a secular bull.
Why?...I'll get into that another time.
Well, from a sentiment perspective we certaintly saw the level of disgust and fear at the lows in March 2009 that was the polar opposite of sentiment observed at March 2000 which was when the secular bear began so ya, it's certaintly possible a secular bull started in March 2009 but only in hindsight can we know this. I focus on the cyclical moves in the market and at the very least we got ourselves a cyclical bull market which typically lasts 3 years or more.
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