Wednesday, August 5, 2009

The comming correction will be the most anticipated ever

This is such a bizzare situation right now. Everyone knows that the market is so overbought and much overdue for a pullback but when we get it, it will be the most anticipated one I have ever seen. A lot of traders have been jumping the gun shorting the market but they keep getting denied and as they cover it simply adds fuel to the raging fire of this rally.

I know exactly what kind of agony underwater shorts are thinking. They are banging their heads against the wall in utter disbelief as to how this market can be so strong and not even close 1 day in the red. They are fighting their instinct to cover and stop the pain but fear of regret i.e. ego, won't let them because they are thinking that the moment they cover the market is going to have the big drop they've been waiting for. I have found that most bears who have capitulated have done so only by force i.e. they got wiped out. Others capitulated in some form, promised to be a better trader (bargining stage of 5 stages of grief) and yet STILL went short and lost again! It's almost like a crack habit with these guys.

I have found that when everyone expects a correction because a market is overextended, 1 of 2 things happens

a) the correction is a lot shallower than people expect and the market makes even higher highs shortly after before the REAL correction happens

b) the correction is actually the start of a much nastier downturn and people buy back in and shorts cover after the dip only for the price to go down a lot further. Case in point - Oil last summer. When it hit around $130 or so, a lot of people were talking about a correction...barrons even had a cover story about it....but they like others said it would be a good buy again at about $100.

So, what's it going to be this time around? I'm leaning towards a) unless I see a signficant change in attitudes and expecations from the trading community.

1 comment:

  1. what's up?

    its the best goalie ever... ya u know who.

    your post about the guy that kept doulbing down is too funny. eventhough there are probably people like that out there - i don't think they as a group (aggressive traders) are repersentative of the greater investor sentiment.

    cnbc is on all day 10 feet from my desk and i think i can safely say that the majority is in the bull camp - grinding growth - china is amazing - la la la. i don't think the whole world is waiting for a commercial re meltdown.

    may i suggest you include a weekly sentiment figures update, track the figures and store them on your own excel sheet.

    anyway send me a email and let me know what your up to nodice.

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