Probably, but I am still not seeing the rydex ratio and investor sentiment flip to the extremes in bullish sentiment that mirror the March 2002 top yet, so untill they do, I will only consider playing the bear side on a very short term basis i.e. intraday or 1-2 day holding periods because I don't think downside will get much traction until more people drop their guard.
Things I'm looking for to get IT bearish again:
1) bullish sentiment popping signficantly to about 2:1 bulls/bears
2) VIX dropping close to or below 20
3) Rydex ratio collapsing to the lows seen in mid June
Until these things happen any bearish trades I make like I said will be very short term. I strongly advise not chasing gap downs. If the market ends up going down back to about 910-915 without the above 3 conditions met, i.e. still a signficant ammount of bearish sentiment, then I believe odds are we will be setting up for an upleg to SPX 1000-1050. Let's see how this plays out...
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