Thursday, November 12, 2009

Sentiment still in good shape

AAII sentiment came into today with bulls and bears exactly even. A clear unwinding of bearish sentiment but still nowhere close to signaling complacency especially with the market right at the 52 week high. It's amazing how despite a 65% rally we haven't even seen one week where bulls outnumbers bears by 2:1(which would have been justified at least for a week or 2 given the strength of the market) yet we have seen a few times during this rally whereby bears outnumbered bulls 2:1. That's wall of worry action for you. Meanwhile the Rydex Cashflow ratio is suprisingly sitting at 0.96 which is still indicating quite a bit of skepticism. Recall the chart I posted on the weekend which showed the Rydex cash flow ratio at 1 which was the same level seen at the July lows. We've barely moved from that level.

With the market perched a hair away from new 52 week highs, ST sentiment suggests there's plenty of room to bust though. We'll see if it happens today or soon afterwards.

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