Monday, November 30, 2009

Dubai a flash in the pan?

Seems that's the case given the green in the futures tonight (although they've faded quite a bit just now). Although there's no official bailout yet of Dubai, the United Arab Emerites Central Bank (UAECB) and Abu Dhabi have made statements which support the notion of one comming. The UAECB stated it's willing to supply a credit facility to banks and Abu Dhabi has stated it may be willing to selectively support some of Dubai World's debts. Although nothing has been done yet to resolve anything, the actions taken over the weekend prove that there's no complacency regarding this matter. Memories of the Lehman Brothers collapse and the ripple effect it had are still fresh in the minds of central banker all over the world and none of them I'm sure want to jeoprodize this recovery we have been seeing this year.

Like I said before, it's going to be tough to see the bear market resume when everyone has their guard up, looking over their shoulder for the boogie man. It just doesn't work that way. That doesn't mean we won't see corrections...but the're likely going to be shallow.

This week is going to be a big one with economic data reports. I think the market is going to quickly forget about Dubai even a lot sooner than I expected and start focusing again on earnings and the prospects for them via these economic reports.

If we go by the motto of this blog, it wouldn't be suprising if we see morning strength to rinse out all of those bears who were expecting a Black Monday and at the same time give confidence to the bulls that the coast is clear. Then once the weak bears have been flushed out and the weak bulls sucked in, Mr. Market pulls the rug from underneath these bulls either by the end of the day or later on in the week. This is just a wild guess of course....I don't know why I even bother mentioning such ST predictions when I often don't put my money on it. I don't know...I just like to see if I can call every little wiggle right even though I know luck plays a huge part.

But I will say this, if we simply gap up and run I'm not likely going to chase it. I still think this market had another downside move in it to about the 1070 level eventually.

Should be an interesting week....

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