Bears have been badly wounded on this latest surge which has caught them flat footed and now the bulls are in position to deal the killer blow and bust this market out to new 52 week highs. I have still yet to have seen any of these stubborn bears that I track put up the white flag. It's amazing the hubris these jokers have. Look, it's one thing to be wrong about the market....everyone get's it wrong....but it's another to stay wrong during an entire 9 month 65% surge and not even admit the possibility that this is a cyclical bull market. Instead all I see from these guys is more table pouding and more hand wringing about the crash that's just around the corner. It's becoming rather comical if you me. And it seems to me that the bear blogs are just as popular as they ever were with the retail types. It's bizzaro year 2000 folks I'm telling you. We are seeing everything that happened in year 2000 play out flipped on it's head.
With the market poised to smash through 1100 to make new 52 week highs bears are desperately banking on a potential double top....they are always going to see patterns that fit their biases. I say no dice to a double top panning out. With AAII sentiment as extreme as it was just last week chances of a double top here are slim. A down/flat day or 2 is certaintly not out of the question to make the appearance of a double top but I highly suspect it would end up making one hell of a bear trap. I'm not going to get caught up in the day to day wiggles. Bulls are in control here untill proven otherwise and I'm focusing my time on my long plays which have being doing specatular. Today was the best day I've had all year!
Rydex data is no longer as favorable to the bulls as it was last week as their bearishness has unwound quite a bit and it's close to hitting modereate levels of bullishiness but it's not there yet.
We'll see what AAII sentiment shows tommorow. Last week as I noted it showed over a 2:1 ratio of bears over bulls....is it any suprise that the market staged a massive rally right afterwards? If history is any guide, will we likely see only a modest unwinding of bearish sentiment from these gurus.
I know I said I was going to discuss gas today but I'm going to pass gas (pun intended). I'll discuss it tommorow or on the weekend.
Late night Update:
Here's a post I just read on the SPY message board on yahoo finance
Last call for jibs/jabs or just anything you want to say to your Beebs. Tonight is the night I say good bye to all my SPY board folks... I won't be back...
You've all been great sports and good spirits, wish I could thank each and every one of you... even those cats that have bugged out of here already.
Counting down before pulling the plug on the account...
These are the types of posts you are supposed to see when the market is crashing not near at 52 week highs! I tell you...bizzaro year 2000!...retail investors in 2000 got wiped out the same way "buying the dip" on their favorite tech stocks that were falling from grace. This time around I suspect, like this guy here, they got wiped out buying the dip on their favorite bear etfs because this is not the first time I have seen someone make a post like this and I usually see them when the market makes a new high. So sad to see this. Investors should be celebrating when the market makes new highs instead it seems they are getting hurt by it!
It's entirely possible we have another couple years before a serious correction. It wouldn't be that unusual.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned in a prior post that in past initial bull market thrusts there wasn't a 10%+ correction untill about 18 months afterwards on average. If you look at the last bull market thrust that began March 2003 we saw a 10% correction get completed in the summer of 2004
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