Sunday, November 22, 2009

A bit of a mixed bag but I think we go lower eventually

Bears couldn't follow through very much and we only got a mild down day. Option expiration activity and/or end of week covering by shorts may have been a factor...who knows. This is why I don't day trade...way too much random noise volatility. Some people are good at day trading I suppose but the numbers show that the vast majority...something like 90% lose money in the long run. Maybe these's a system out there that consistently works over the long run and I'm sure there's some people who have been successful at it but I haven't found it. Day trading has a "fast money" appeal to it which attracts a lot of gambling prone people and for the most part, it is gambling because of the randomness of intraday volatility.

I've experimented with day trading a bit this year and I have more or less broken even and so I vowed not to waste anymore of my time and effort on it. However, there are some times when I recognize a particular low risk-high reward intraday pattern and those are the times that when I should perhaps take a stab at a day trade but those opportunities are rare....those are the times when I've made money with a day trade but then I would piss those gains away with less than ideal set ups. This is something I vow to improve upon - taking advantage of those rare low risk-high reward intraday opportunities and avoiding any other type day trade.
My strength has always been with the IT and LT moves and that's where I've made my money this year.

There's one particular trader I follow (I won't say his name) who I've seen self-destruct. He even admitted to only having $5k remaining from the $300K he started with. I've watched him make terrible, emotionally driven trades with no game plan at all...he just reacts to whatever his impulses and pain tolerance dictates and he's been getting more and more reckless. This guy is simply an impulsive gambler who calls himself a trader. He mainly trades OTM options and when you act emotionally and impulsively with OTM options you are almost guaranteed to get wiped out because the volatility is tremendous. I feel kind of bad for the guy but it seems like subconsciously he just wants to lose it all so that he'll be done with this game for good...and he will be. There are probably a lot of people out there like this guy. Thanks to the internet gambling has never been easier to do.

As far as markets go ST...I see a mixed bag here now. One trusty indicator I follow says we could see a decent bounce but rydex data and the behavior of the vix say that more downside lies ahead and so I suspect any bounce (if we even see one) will be just that...a bounce which will lead to lower lows.

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