The song remains the same

I continue to be amazed how this market is still not attracting buyers from retail investors. Here we are at new all time highs (albeit marginal) and yet STILL no positive net inflows! Compare this run in the market to the similar one from Sept 2017 to January 2018 where there was heavy inflows. Of course, back then we had all the "Global synchronized growth" chatter whereas now there it's the opposite. It's comfortable to buy when things look rosy like back then,  but it's also more dangerous because as I've said here many times, it's all about expectations. When expectations are high, lots of people get in the pool and all it takes is slight disappointment for there to be a severe correction.  Now we a have a situation where the market is rising relentlessly yet expectations have been fairly low all throughout it. That makes the rally likely to be a sustainable one with any dips likely to continue to be shallow.  What will it take for people to jump back in? Probably clear cut signs that the global economy has returned to growth mode, but the market is forward looking and so by the time you wait for the all clear you will have missed a lot of the move. But wait a second, what about the bearish signal of the bond market? Government bond yields continue to be low and bears are pointing this out as a non-confirmation of this rally i.e. the bond market sees things differently than the stock market and that the bond market is smarter. Well, I have seen times when the stock market has been smarter. Take for instance the behavior of the stock market vs bond market after the recession scare of 2011. The stock market correctly rallied in 2012 and 2013 which was not "confirmed" by the bond market until the first quarter of 2013. Oh but there was QE  back then and yada, yada, yada. There perma bears like zerohedge and the like have been making excuses since day fucking 1 and must of cost people who follow them God knows how much.

The bottom line is as I said before, .major corrections start AFTER there had been a major rise in bond yields. The greater the preceding rise in bond yields, the greater the correction tends to be. We have only seen a minor pop in yields since the end of March which suggests any correction at this point would be minor; the same message being given by the non-existence of fund inflows. Continued low bond yields and lack of exuberance  from mom and pop investor suggests the market can still power forward a lot higher before it's all said and done.