Thursday, May 9, 2019

AAII buys the dip

One of the key sentiment indicators I track AAII, is showing complacency in the face of market weakness. Bulls actually increased this week to 43% vs only 23% bears (34% neutral). When AAII buys the dip like this it's usually not a good sign for the market in the short term and when it's 2:1 bulls vs bears it's not an ideal time to buy regardless.  We've also had a lot of IPOs lately and so when combining all this with the latest Trump hissy fit, we shouldn't really be too surprised that the market is correcting here. We have had a hell of run so far this year and at some point the market has to cool off for one reason or another. As always, I'll keep an open mind as to whether this is the start of something really nasty but I don't think so at this point given what I discussed in my previous post. We'll see how things unfold....I am not considering any new buys untill I see AAII get bearish again and the market gets oversold.

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