Is value over growth overbought? Crypto crash

The commodities complex has cooled off a bit as I had expected. If you look at long term futures prices some key commodities such as lumber, corn and  iron ore are trading at significant discounts to spot prices. This strongly suggests that their recent spikes are not sustainable. If you look at copper however, the discount is modest and so that suggests current prices are more likely to have limited downside. If that's the case, copper producers and exploration companies with attractive late stage projects are going to do quite well longer term. Shorter term, it can be dicey. I'm definitely seeing a lot of inflation talk which is giving me contrarian vibes to expect at least a reprieve in such concerns, but as I stated, some commodities appear much more vulnerable than others. 

I'm also sensing a lot of negatively towards tech relatively speaking. If inflation pressures cool this will be a positive for tech. At the same time, the love for financials and to a lesser degree energy may be indicative that the value over growth trade is due for at least a temporary reversal. Am I getting too cute? Maybe, but as I said before, you don't chase. You gotta zig when others are zagging. I saw a recent chart showing that according to a BOA survey, Fund managers have fled the tech sector by a historically extreme amount and have embraced value/cyclical sectors. Again, not the ideal time to be embracing such a trade.  

The crypto crash has been the main focus in the financial headlines. It started with TSLA no longer accepting BTC as payment followed up by a China ban on their banks dealing with crypto in any way. Has the bubble burst? I think it has. A 40% drop in BTC is reminiscent of the NASDAQ bubble bursting in 2000. A lot of crypto bulls are saying "we've seen this movie before. BTC has crashed several times but always came back". True but that's only because on each revival of BTC it  was able to recruit a fresh batch of greater fools. Where are the greater fools going to come from this time? At the recent peak you had institutional money embracing BTC. They were the last bastion of fools. Now, they are bag holders. I suspect now that the only thing that will keep BTC afloat are short squeezes and greater fool buying from ST traders.  You may also get one last hurrah from those who were waiting to "buy the dip". That can only get you so far however. I suspect most of the would be buyers are already in which means only one way to go longer term and that's down.  I suspect we will see lower highs and lower lows now with BTC and it will ultimately go sub $10K within 6-12 months maybe even less. 

Commodities rush

First off some general market comments. So far the implosion of the frothiest parts of the stock market i.e. SPACS and the momentum growth names i.e. ARKK stocks has not bled into the general market. Even the stagnation of the FAANGS hasn't prevented the SPX from hitting new all time highs. Last year  I saw so many people on Twitter post a pie chart showing how  5-7 stocks dominate the  performance of SPX implying that once these giants start faltering, the market is toast. But somehow, someway the market has managed to soldier on...at least for now. The value to growth and growth to value rotations have continued to play out and so far YTD value is winning the battle but it's been treacherous to those who chase in either direction. Friday's job report is creating a narrative that the Fed is not going to raise rates sooner than scheduled which is becoming a concern lately given Yellen's comments, the surge in certain commodity prices and the chatter in general about how inflation pressures are building.  Any kind of abatement in interest rate hiking fears will probably help the underperforming tech sector you would think. When I look at the main sentiment indicators the message I'm getting is neutral which suggests either a continued uptrend or a sideways market with only modest dips. 

So let's talk about commodities, specifically copper and oil. Goldman recently came out with research which paints a very bullish picture for copper in the long term and oil in the short term. Goldman came out with a report in April titled "Copper is the new oil"  Their thesis is that the transition to a green economy is going to lead to substantial demand for copper for several years given its use in wind, solar, energy grid/storage and EVs and since copper and commodities in general have gone through a lost decade from basically 2010-2020, not enough was invested in new mining supply to cope with this newfound demand which will keep copper prices elevated. If this thesis turns out to be true, junior mining companies that have advanced copper projects are going to have the most torque. I happen to own one such stock which I have had for several years -  Foran mining. The stock has been on a tear because they are in the right space and in the right development stage of their project. They are also being ESG conscious with their marketing and approach. They recently had a new CEO come on board who was so attracted to their prospects that he chose not to take a salary but to rather get paid by stock incentives which are tied to company milestones. Copper has recently hit an all time high yet there's nothing even close to the same enthusiasm for resource/materials stocks as there was back in 2010-2011. It's been relatively under the radar.  

In late March/early April I found my self loading up on other resource stocks because the market was telling me to do so. The charts were all showing what I like to call rare "sweet spot" setups whereby you have favorable technicals (uptrend with higher highs, higher lows), fundamentals and valuations. The setup reminds me of  the stocks that I had picked out and had success with in 2009 and 2010.  What's probably creating a lot of surprise this year is how fiercely the energy sector has come back to life. This was the most hated sector for years. Most people, including myself had called this sector "un-investable" because of the ESG movement and all the hype surrounding EVs and then in 2020 the absolute unfathomable happened when oil prices  traded negative. Now, oil is having its revenge and I doubt it's over yet. Because of all the hatred and avoidance of oil and gas companies these past 4-5 years we may soon find ourselves with an acute shortage of oil because of the lack of development in new supply. This is what Goldman thinks. Some energy bears think that fracking will come back on line in a hurry now that prices are higher. I say not so fast. All this ESG awareness will make fracking a much more difficult proposition than in the recent past.  And we're not going to all transition to EVs overnight and so it could very well be the case that this oil rally has legs. Even though I can sense that more people are warming up to this sector it's still  under-owned. 

Another interesting commodity which is not getting much headlines is iron ore. It's also making all time highs. I hold a position in a speculative company called Black Iron Inc. They have a mining project in the works which is highly leveraged to iron ore. They also have a high premium  ore which not only commands higher prices but is also ESG friendly as it cleaner to process than regular grade ore. The more ESG friendly a company is the most likely they will get access to capital and attract institutional investors. The project they have has excellent economics with an assumed iron ore price of $60 and right now the price is $195!   I also scooped up positions in small cap companies leveraged to natural gas and condensates. Again, the charts were screaming at me to buy them. 

My timing in purchasing all my resource names (aside from Foran which I have held for years) has been exquisite as all of them had huge moves almost instantly after I bought. Now, I do realize  that after such a great run we could get a breather in the commodity space soon especially if part of the reason fueling the rise in the ST was supply disruptions due to COVID. The US dollar has been declining steadily as of late and so any sharp reversal of that would put pressure on commodity prices as well. But I'm not going to mind such things. I'm in a position where I can be a strong holder and ride out any counter trend moves. I will not take profits just for the sake of taking profits. That's a rookie mistake. The market doesn't a give a shit about what price you bought in. I will sell when either the fundamentals say so,  I see some sort of blow-off move which makes the stock over valued or I have a better idea to invest the money. The stocks I own are either cheap fundamentally or in the case of the junior exploration companies, have a lot of "story" left to be told i.e. important announcements which pertain to the development of their mining projects. I'm also in a situation whereby  I have a regular stream of good income such that I don't rely on my portfolio gains to make my living as I once did. That puts me in much better position mentally to be able to hold on to positions if they start going against me. My portfolio can get chopped in half or even more and I'll still be fine. With my junior miner plays, I intend to keep at least 25% of my position invested until the very end i.e. until they develop their mine or possibly get acquired because the gains you can make in such cases are massive. If  you're going to play the long game you have to resist the temptation of getting out too early. If we are indeed in the early innings of a commodities run there will still be big money to be made but you gotta be prepared to hold during periods where the stocks do nothing for several months maybe even up to a couple of years.  I've been very lucky to have experienced instant gratification but I know that's not sustainable in the long run. If I am to fully capitalize I must be prepared for the inevitable corrections and stagnations and resist ST trading.  Most people can't do such a thing because they watch their stocks every day tick by tick. Doing so leads you make hasty decisions and  not having the patience or mental fortitude to handle adverse moves.  

China-like GDP growth?

 First off, some comments on recent market action. In my last post I talked about  frothy sentiment indicators but a funny thing happened the next day after that post - the main short-medium term indicators I look at reversed course to a moderate degree thus leaving a window for the market to advance and advance it did! Even the left for dead Cathy Wood stocks i.e. ARKK caught a bid....OK left for dead is over the top in describing it. 

The job number on Friday absolutely blew away expectations.  Usually the permabear types will find something to pick on when you get a report like this but this time...crickets. Goldman Sacks and JPM have come out with reports claiming that there's going to be a massive spring boom in economic activity as vaccine rollouts allow major locked down states like California, Illinois and New York to re-open. We could see growth rates that challenge China.(temporarily) even when excluding base effects. If this bullish scenario was to happen, then it's going to take off the charts level of bullish sentiment to mark a top of any significance. The SPX has made a new all time closing high. That has to be respected. Fresh all time highs tend to be beget further new highs. My bearish inclinations are premature it would seem.  However, I will not let emotions take hold and still be disciplined and on guard. Sentiment can be fickle and we could see the recent caution be thrown to the wind on a dime. 

Lets say we do this get massive surge in economic activity. It's going to put tremendous pressure on Powel to change his "no rate hikes until 2023" tune. Any hint of him doing that would cause a knee jerk market correction you would think. We're just going to have to wait and see how this all plays out...it will be interesting no doubt.  Commodities is one area I have been focusing on...more on this in a future post. 

 

Uneasy feelings

First let's talk about that Fed meeting last week. When I looked at what expectations were the day before the meeting, many folks were thinking that the Fed could blink in the opposite way I was suspecting - that the Fed was going to suggest hiking rates sooner than expected whereas I was thinking they would be even more dovish by suggesting they would cap long term rates. The end result was something in the middle. The Fed had mildly surprised the consensus by remaining steadfast on their "no hikes until 2023" stance but didn't go so far to suggest yield curve control. The bond market had a "meh" reaction while equities had a mild rally. Since then yields have cooled off due to declining oil and growth expectations as a result of new lockdowns in Europe and markets have rolled over a bit with vicious day to day rotations from growth to value and vice versa. 

Now I want to discuss what's been bothering me about market conditions. My posts as of late have had a pessimistic tone to them based on all the excesses I've been seeing.  Inflows have been surging at a time when supply of new stock via IPOs and secondaries have been spiking.  That's a bad combo. And  the silliness in meme stocks has not gone away as per the recent pops (and now fizzles) in GME and AMC and of course bitcoin.. Now, given the huge amount of stimulus that is forthcoming I get why animal spirts are elevated and I know one must be careful to not be contrarian just for contrarian's sake but I got to say that there is little in the way of a wall of worry right now for the market to climb on.

Something that could potentially be more ominous is how the recent carnage in the pure hype/momo stocks could be a parallel to the bursting of the tech bubble in March 2000. The carnage in 2000 first started with the dot com stocks which were pure hype garbage. Tech in general lagged the broader market for the next few months while the market overall held up OK  until one by one the bigger tech names started getting hit and eventually dragged down the entire market. By the end of 2000 the SPX  had clearly rolled over into a downtrend. However, there's some obvious major differences between that period and now. Back then interest rates and fiscal policy was notably tight whereas now it's notably accommodative if not off the charts accommodative. But you can't shake the parallels in the speculative excesses when you look at retail trading frenzy, bitcoin, NFTs, the issuance of IPOs/SPACs, ect.  I've been listening to the commentary of the "pros" i.e. fund managers and the consensus view by far is that there's going to be a huge acceleration of growth in the 2nd half of the year as COVID subsides. A  roaring 20's style boom is another thing I've been constantly hearing. As someone who is a contrarian at heart, all this talk makes me cringe. Now I get why there's such a bullish expectation given the stimulus that's going to be unleashed, but folks, it's all about expectations. Always remember the market has a way of making fools of as many people as possible. It seems to me that expectations are so high right now about a rosy outcome for the second half of the year. that there beckons to be some major disappointment in the pipeline.  Remember last year at this time? It was the complete opposite. Everyone's outlook was bleak including mine. Things looked really hopeless. 

Maybe I'm over-fretting here and the sentiment concerns I have will end up only being ST/medium term negative for the markets due to extremely accommodative monetary and fiscal conditions which will limit any downside to being just a sharp correction. But I just can't shake that uneasy feeling I have given the poor sentiment backdrop and excesses I'm seeing. Housing is another one which I will save for another post.  If we are at a major top right here or perhaps in a few months time,  could we look back a year from now and say that there were clear signs of irrational exuberance to have marked the top? The answer to that is a clear yes. The best thing for this bull market to continue would be for something to come along that cleanses the excesses and rebuilds the wall of worry. This would no doubt result in pain i.e. a 10-20%  decline. If not, we're probably just setting ourselves up for bigger pain down the road. 

Until sentiment conditions improve, I will continue to be very alert and practical sticking only with high conviction positions while keeping a healthy cash reserve.  

Will the Fed blink this week?

Immediately after I had warned about rising rates the market stumbled with tech stocks taking the brunt of the damage, especially the pure momo hype stocks like NIO, PLTR, TSLA and others. The Only places to hide were in value names. Did I happen to nail peak Cathy Wood and Elon Musk 3 weeks ago? Time will tell. ARKK and TSLA took a big hit.  I did see some Cathy Wood bashers come out of the woodwork and so maybe her time isn't up just yet.  We'll see. 

This latest surge in rates may have very well pierced the tech bubble in the purest of momo names, but if rates can find a way to stabilize and retreat from here, we could see a stabilization and resurgence in tech names...at least for a while.  During the depths on the recent pullback we didn't see the typical run for the exists type sentiment that we normally see except for the NAAIM indicator and a couple of other shorter term indicators. Fund flows and AAII sentiment didn't budge and is still showing elevated bullish behavior. Also look at how muted the VIX spike relative to other recent pullbacks. Thanks to the resurgence in value names the SPX and especially the DOW have recovered from the pullback while the NASDAQ is still well off the highs. We are seeing crazy day to day rotation in and out of growth and value names. 

So, the narrative as to why growth has been getting hit is because rising rates have a  negative impact on the valuation of secular cash flow generators given the higher discount rate applied to cashflows. At the same time rising rates have steepened the yield curve which supposedly makes financials more attractive and so you get this massive rotation from growth to value happening. Growth over value has dominated for years and really accelerated during COVID but for the past 5-6 months this trend has reversed sharply. So, is this the beginning of the long awaited value over growth cycle turn? For that to happen I believe you would need to see earnings disappointments or some other negative shock to the tech bellwethers i.e. the FAANGS. This is what kick started the last major value cycle from 2000-2007.  If earnings from the tech giants and growth plays in general don't come under threat then this value upturn will probably end up being a short lived affair.

In the short term the value rotation looks overbought here. All the Fed has to do is just hint that they are ready to step in to cap the yield in long bonds and this trade would reverse hard in the short term.  At some point the Fed has to step in. If yields keep climbing it will undermine the massive $1.9T stimulus bill. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that the Fed was urging politicians to play their part in supporting the economy by passing a major stimulus bill. Well, they did just that and so now the ball is back in the Fed's court.  Given the passing of this stimulus and Fed's accommodative stance towards the economy, It would be asinine if the Fed just sits on their hands and continues to just watch this surge in long bond yields. Mortgage rates are already ticking higher. What's the Fed's uncle point?  Is it 1.75%, is it 2% on the 10 year?  The Fed meeting this week will be a big one. If they don't hint strongly towards doing some sort of yield curve control we will probably see yields on the 10 year make a run for 2%. That's going to cause more pain for the market, tech in particular. And then what....the Fed is going to capitulate a few days later and announce something? They need to say something at this meeting or they will risk looking like fools like they did in late 2018 when they stubbornly took too long to respond to changing market conditions. Maybe Powel learned something from this. Maybe he didn't.  The last time Powel spoke he didn't suggest any changes to Fed policy and the market sold off  and yields took off notably. All he said was the rising yields had "caught his eye".  It appears that most market players are expecting more disappointment from Powel again,  but given how bond yields keep making fresh highs I think there's a much better chance this time for a positive outcome.

Back in late 2018 the bond market bullied the Fed into doing a complete 180 turn from their rate hike campaign. The tail wagged the dog. They are now bullying the Fed again. The Fed has to realize that they are the dog. If the Fed wanted to, they could  rip out the throats of the bond bears for they have literally unlimited buying power.  Right now there's a lot of speculative trend following shorts in the bonds. It's ripe for a squeeze and the Fed probably won't even need to do a lot of heavy lifting. Just them announcing that they will backstop bonds would send yields sharply lower on their own. If the Fed does this  you're going to hear it from the permabears and self righteous market purists as they cry foul about such manipulation. But guess what? Manipulation is here to stay. The Fed stepped in to backstop corporate bonds last year and it worked. You're never going to have markets be totally free, nor would that even be desirable. If markets were totally free,  manipulation would be worse.  Those with the largest pools of capital would be in position of power and would manipulate markets with no mercy in order satisfy their self interests at the expense of everyone else.  Due to the madness of crowds psychology, unfettered free markets would likely result in more frequent bigger boom and bust cycles as well. The truth is, you need regulations and you need central authorities to keep "the children" in check. It's arguable as to how to organize and run such overseers and no doubt they have been less than perfect and have abused their powers at times,  but we need them to prevent the larger abuses and instability of purely free markets.  Anyhow, I digress.

It will be interesting to see how things play out here. If the Fed says the right things this week and the markets end up making new highs with NASDAQ making a comeback to take back leadership, it will probably result in one last hurrah before something else eventually comes along to make the market stumble. The reason I say this is because sentiment conditions are already bullishly elevated for the most part and therefore not providing a wall of worry backdrop at the moment aside from a couple of shorter term indicators. It wouldn't be long before we see bullish sentiment turn to euphoric bullish  and bad things tend to happen when we get that. 

FOMO culture

 There was a notable bullish shift in sentiment the last couple of weeks as per fund flows and sentiment. We're also seeing a sizable spike in bond yields. I've said it here many times before that notable pullbacks/corrections have been preceded by a surge in bond yields like this.

One of the biggest newsworthy events of late is the revelation of Tesla having bought $1.5B worth of BTC while  other "whales" are joining the party or are strongly considering it despite probably not truly understanding BTC or what they are getting into.  Tesla, buy the way, effectively used debt to buy BTC given the bonds they issued in the past couple of years. Whether they want to admit it or not, this newfound institutional inflow into BTC is purely monkey see monkey do and FOMO behavior. They can try to rationalize it all they want, but that's what it is. It's no different than the retail meme stock mania. My theory has been that BTC is being driven purely by greater fool buying which can only be sustained by a steady inflow of new fools and now because of Tesla and others, institutional money flow is providing a fresh source of inflows to keep the BTC party going, There is also now a BTC ETF which will also suck in every last retail investor and momo trader who was always tempted to buy BTC but didn't know how or were afraid to. With the BTC ETF it's now easy to buy BTC.  A buddy of mine asked for help to set up a Questrade account so that he can buy $2500 of this ETF. Do you think he has a clue about what BTC is or how it works? Of course not. Just like the "GME to the moon" reddit "investors" had no clue or how Hertz "investors" had no clue what they doing last summer.

Given these recent developments we are fast approaching the all in scenario for BTC where the bubble will be ripe for bursting and this time for good because there will be no more greater fools to get in. As institutional flows pour into BTC, systematic risk from a BTC crash rises along with it.  I should look into this more because we all know what happened the last time there was widespread exposure of toxic assets held by so called smart money institutional investors (yes I'm talking about MBS in 2008).  

I've seen people including Tyler Winklevoss say "if you don't own BTC you are short BTC". What a fucking crock of shit statement. They are basically saying if you don't own BTC you're a loser. I quoted Cameron Winklevoss at the height of the GME mania tweeting "If you don't like the suits buy GME and AMC, if you don't like the bankers buy BTC".  Just shameless, baseless pumping from these clowns but because they are such "influencers" people blindly follow them. Same goes for Elon. Elon seems to be going off the rails lately. He's been pumping Dogecoin like a fiend - a crypto currency (if you want to use that word) which was created as a joke and now has market cap of over $7 Billion thanks to his pumping. Remember Elon was also pumping the "revolution" stocks.  

We've never had a time like this whereby people are willing to pile into just about anything  as either an expression of their opinions, or sheer  FOMO ignorance. Clever contrarians who bet against these moves too early only add fuel to the fire as they get ran over  while momentum type traders who are programed to chase strength add even more fuel to the fire.  But ultimately it ends in disaster once you run out of buyers and the fundamentals assert themselves. To me it's as clear as day that the true underlying driver of the BTC price is greater fool buying and that can only take you so far. Eventually reality hits and hits hard and fast. The ridiculous assent of  Hertz, Signal, GME, AMC, blockbuster and all the other junk stocks ultimately ended in disaster because the fundamentals said so. BTC will end the same way, but sure, it can keep going higher first as this newfound institutional love continues to pay out.  After resisting for so long, you're seeing a lot of advisors/market strategists capitulate and now say t's a good idea to add 5-10% of BTC to portfolios as an inflation hedge to replace gold. Even though these strategists still can't rationalize why the BTC is worth what it is, they've basically shrugged their shoulders and drank the koolaid. Have you noticed that gold has been in decline while pretty much every other commodity has been on the rise as of late? That's got to be mainly due to the BTC displacement effect. 

I will leave you with this consideration. Right now the Elon's, Winklevoss's and Cathy Wood's of  today are being worshiped but one thing I've learned over the years is that today's geniuses are often tomorrow's goats. It wasn't too long ago when permabears such as Roubini and Schiff where looked at as geniuses because they were big bears prior to the 2008 meltdown. Meredith Whitney was another name.  Remember her? She made a great bearish call on the banks.   But these folks remained bearish all throughout the bull market that followed and eventually turned out to be goats which I predicted would be case. Back in April 2009 I wrote this "A comment on analysts Whiteny and Roubini who have recently achieved super star status: From my experience anytime an analyst or strategist or whoever become market sages they inevitably will fall from grace usually shortly after the point when everyone worships their every word (we could be at that point already with these 2). These 2 will WITHOUT A DOUBT one day become goats. Mark my words.""

Abbey Joseph Cohen was the permabull star strategist for Goldman Sachs who gained notoriety in the 90's for her permabull outlooks. She reminds me a lot of Cathy Wood today. When the tech bubble burst in 2000 Cohen stayed bullish all throughout the bear market that followed and her star had fallen. So, beware of blindly following gurus just because they've had a hot hand. That's one of the things I've learned over many years. Along the same lines, what I've also learned is this: respect price action but don't defer to it. Just because the price of something is either rising or falling doesn't necessarily validate the respective bullish or bearish narrative that accompanies it. It's easy to be convinced by the bull case when price is rising and likewise in the bear case when price is declining. Always keep an objective perspective to the best of your ability and always remember the motto of this blog. Once everyone starts to worship someone or some particular narrative that's when you need to be on guard for things going in the opposite direction. 

Random thoughts

First off, a few comments about recent market action. To no surprise the "revolution" aka "meme" stocks crashed and burned. While there's lots of finger pointing going on, the true culprit are the "revolutionists" themselves for being such naïve fools, not the brokerages, hedge funds or whatever. But I will say this, nobody is pointing any fingers at  Cameron Winklevoss or Elon Musk who were cheerleading this "revolution". God knows how many people jumped in because of them and now they get to hold the bag while Winklevoss and Musk still hold onto their billions 

While the "revolution" was happening there was an acute deleveraging by hedge funds late last week as there was great fear that all short positions would be targeted for squeezes. As such, the market had a sharp but short lived dip and is now hitting all time highs as I type this. Lots of people were bracing for "the big one"  as the VIX spiked to near 40 but once again Mr. Market said no dice. You could hear the collective groans from the permabears and all the rest who have been bracing for a big drop for so long. ST sentiment conditions are back to neutral after having shown some exuberance a couple weeks back. When you have such conditions while the market is grinding to new highs, the market either keeps going higher or any dips that do happen tend to be relatively modest i.e. less than 5%. 

Coming into this year there is a clear consensus call for reflation. That would be bearish for bonds, bullish for the market in general with commodities, deep cyclicals outperforming.  Now as I mentioned in a recent post, you need to be careful to not be contrarian just for contrarians sake and automatically take the opposite view of the consensus. However, with this consensus view the market is clearly going to be vulnerable to a repricing of expectations should reflation fail to take place. I feel much more confident in being bullish when the market is making new highs while the consensus view is one of pessimism or very cautious optimism. That's a low hanging fruit type situation. Right now I would say the fruit is high hanging - not out of reach, but more difficult and dangerous to pick, so be alert.

Switching gears now to talk about some personal stuff. It's been about 7 years since the Greenstar fiasco whereby I took a devastating loss.  I was naive and foolish for putting myself in a position to get badly hurt like that especially given all my years of experience. I was ashamed of myself.  It was one of the lowest points in my life. I would say that the only time I felt worse was when this girl I knew who I had a huge crush on in high school found a boyfriend just as I was getting the courage to make a move on her. I remember how my heart just sank to the floor when I first found out and the agonizing weeks that followed. To this day I still carry that scar. There's 2 main ways people deal with huge setbacks like this. One way is to be consumed by the misery whereby your loss of confidence and sense of self-worth becomes permanent. The other way is to learn from the setback and to fight back with everything you got . Doing so can not only make up for the set back but put you in an ever strong position than ever before. I've always been one to fight and bounce back from major setbacks, but there's no guarantee that if you have a big set back you will be able to recover from it. In some situations you simply can't no matter how hard you try. Luck can be a big factor. 

The loss I incurred from Greenstar led to a series of events which actually ended up making me better off than had I not experienced the loss.  In fact, I'm easily in the best spot I've ever been in. I remember the dark place I was in after the full effect of the Greenstar loss sunk in mentally. I wrote about it here http://bulls-bears-pigs.blogspot.com/2014/11/still-alive.html.  I felt like I was walking around with a big hole in my chest.  I had to essentially rejoin the workforce to get a "regular job", one that was well below my qualifications. It was a 45-60 minute drive each way to work too but I knew I had to start somewhere. From there I climbed my way up which also had its own ups and downs. I was really, really fortunate. I was lucky to have met the right people and be given great opportunities. Of course, I made the best of those opportunities and so I'll give myself some credit  but without this good fortune, things would not have turned out  as good as it did.  There's a good book I read a few years ago called Outliers which describes what made super successful people so successful. The basic conclusion is that their success was due to part skill, part hard work and part luck such as being born at the right place or the right time or to the right family which allowed them to get unique opportunities. Without having the opportunity one's potential can easily go to waste. Of course, you have to try your best to create opportunities but it's often the case that you can't and you get them by luck. 

I admit that I am one lucky SOB to be where I am right now. especially during this pandemic. I just need to make sure now that I don't become complacent or reckless. As such, I have a sticky note taped to my desk which says "DFIU" as a reminder. Can you guess what it stands for?