The" R word" is back

Here we go again. In the past couple of weeks I've noticed the "R word" being used quite a bit in the financial media and by that I'm referring to the word "recession". Talk about dejavu...again! Remember the double dip fears we had in 2010 and then again in 2011? Those turned out to be false and now here we are for the 3rd straight year with summertime recession chatter. You shouldn't however be automatically dismissive of these chicken littles just because they were wrong twice in a row; just like how you shouldn't automatically embrace the views of those who have been right for a while (think Roubini and Whitney in 2009 like I warned about back then).

This morning Spain announced a 3 month short selling ban on all stocks. Historically short selling bans result in even further declines perhaps because it removes liquidity and signals desperation. I don't really care about the whys, I just care about the whats as in what are the results. Remember the short ban on US financials on September 18, 2008? It was followed by a 2 day pop and then disaster for the market especially financials. The was also a short sale ban in September 1931 and what followed was not good for longs either. But, if you also recall, there was a short sale ban of financial stocks in Europe last August and timing wise, it was not too bad a time to go long European equities (only of high quality countries like Germany) intermediate term. That ban was followed by a pop and then a lower lower in September which was significant (about 10% lower) but not severe and then a big multi-month rally took hold. In every case though ,a short selling ban didn't mark the final bottom of the market in question and so I doubt very much that the final bottom in Spain has been reached and perhaps that applies to all of Europe as well even if there's a big ST pop.

During the past 2 summers the markets were what I would technically consider bear markets (albiet small and short lived ones) because the market behaved like how bears do - downwards/sideways trend with high volatility whereby overbought conditions are resolved poorly. We've been in the same condition since May. Overbought conditions have been rejected easily but on the flip side so are oversold conditions so that's the good news which suggest we may end up being in a "sideways, mini-bear" like the last 2 summers as opposed to full blown bear. But I wouldn't get too comfortable with with that notion just yet.  

As far as conditions are right now, what's strange is that despite the market having been strong in the past couple weeks,  AAII sentiment was 2:1 bears vs bulls which is what you normally see after the market has had a significant decline and is near a ST or IT low. On a stand alone basis, this reading suggests we're not ready to go down big just yet and that the rally has more juice in it. Maybe that's going to end up still being the case but most other sentiment indicators, as I pointed out before, are in the opposite condition of what AAII is and do in fact suggest the market is vulnerable to at least a significant pullback.

That AAII reading really psyched me out and prevented me from making the bearish bet I have in mind making. I realize that this AAII  reading could very well end up being a red herring given the condition of the other indicators, but I simply refuse to make a bearish bet with 2:1 bears vs bulls because you'd be a fool so many times in the past if you did so. Perhaps my pickiness will cause me to me miss out capitalizing on the downside.  I have to admit,  I'm a bit pissed off that I missed out on the dip we saw today. When you miss out on a trade it's tempting to want to make a "revenge" trade but this is what the often sadistic Mr. Market wants you to do. He wants you to make hasty, emotionally charged decisions. He wants you to "reach in" to grab the money so that he can give your hand a hard slap and if you overdue do it, chop it right off.

As I type this the market is making a comeback and has erased about half the intraday losses. If you're a bear who's been betting on the big downside break you're probably swearing at your computer pulling out your hair. Again, this is what Mr. Market, the tormentor likes to do. He will make sure that during any major move up or down, the least amount of people are on board to profit from it and so that means plenty of headfake shakeouts. He will often push your convictions to the very limit and beyond.

Summer doldrums

I don't like what I'm seeing here. Friday's bounce not withstanding, we've had a market that has been sliding relentlessly in drip, drop fashion (bear market action) and the disturbing thing about it is that, overall, the key sentiment indicators have remained stubbornly too bullish. The Rydex ratio, which I have been noting for weeks is still too complacent and  became even more complacent as these traders have bought the recent dip. I don't recall a time where these guys have been proven right doing that (although they can be right for a while). The Rydex ratio is now at a level that is outright bearish- it's as low as it was near previous major tops in the past few years.  I know I shouldn't be obsessed about just one indicator especially if most others are giving opposite signals but they aren't. NAAIM barely budged from last weeks reading of 63% net long. AAII sentiment didn't change much either, although it's at neutral. Meanwhile the VIX only got as high at 18 and change during the lows of the sell-off. The only thing that showed wall of worry behavior was the put/call ratio which was a bit on the high side. Overall though, the ST sentiment indicators showed complacency since the market peaked early in the month. I read an article from Hulbert that said insider selling has ramped to dangerous levels as well recently.

I haven't felt this negative about the market's ST/IT prospects since June of last year. I don't know if we'll get the same degree of weakness that followed then, but I'm reasonably sure there will be something significant and I expect to see June's lows retested or broken. We can certaintly bounce a bit more for the next week or 2 but the bottom line is that I think there's unfinished business to the downside. If we get ST overbought again, I intend to make a play on the downside.

I've been heavily in cash (60%) as a defensive measure for a while now, but I'm becoming uncomfortable with this strategy. Given the negative ST/IT conditions I see, it's no longer good enough for me to be in cash like this. Although I will be in good position to capitalize on opportunities should the market have a significant decline, I'd most likely see losses in my core positions in the interim. I need to do better than that. I want to actually thrive if we get a drop and that means getting net short which is why I'm hoping there is some sort of a snap back rally in the next week or so.

Having said all this, there are some things that are potentially encouraging longer term. We are seeing more rate cuts across the board now with Emerging Markets countries with South Korea cutting too. If these rate cuts continue, it will put the global markets in a condition of loose monetary policy which historically has coincided with strong LT returns for equities. However, we need to see more easing and it takes time for monetary policy to gain traction. There also probably needs to be a fiscal push as well. In in interim, we can't be complacent about the weakness we are seeing overseas in China and Europe which now may be starting to  impact the earnings of North American Companies, in particular, tech companies.

It's been a rather frustrating year for me so far. I'm up for the year but only about 5%.  My largest holding hwo.to has pulled back quite a bit while I have taken a beating in fmc.to but my holding in the latter is quite small. I have given my "starter" position in fmc.to as much "wiggle" room as I'm going to give it and I'm now considering pulling the plug on it. Mind you, the stock could go to 0 and I wouldn't be hurt all that bad but as a matter of discipline I have to pull the plug at some point when I'm wrong and I have been. Oh sure, it could turn around the moment I sell but you can't think like that. You have to draw a line at some point. My fate largely depends on hwo.to right now which I'm a strong holder of and can be given my large cash position and my avg cost in the stock. The pull back it has had looks to be profit taking after a big run (along with some general market weakness of course) as opposed to a deterioration in the company's fundamentals. If anything, the fundies are getting even better after my email exchange with the CEO (yes I realize the potential  for bias).

Since 2009 I have been using a buy and hold approach with illiquid small/micro caps like hwo.to. which I believed were undervalued, had explosive potential but were overlooked. I have done quite well dong this but it hasn't been a bed of roses. I tend to have periods where I see solid gains for a 1-3 week periods, followed by nothingness or marginal to moderate drawdowns for several weeks. Dealing with the latter can at times be excruciating but you have to go through it because if you try to get too cute trading in and out you run the high risk of missing the explosive gains when the come. You simply need to have the conviction to stick with your position assuming that you have good reasons to have such conviction. You have the fight the impulse to make hasty trades as you watch the day to day fluctuations.

In the past, when IT general market conditions became too concerning I reduced or eliminated my long holdings and remained largely in cash. I've done it this year and in the summers of 2010 and 2011. I would have done better though  if had hedged my positions instead using index shorts (puts on index ETFs is my preferred choice). I would have done even better still if I took a tactical trading approach with the broad market capturing the ST rallies and declines when it's in "correction mode", although I admit that a lot of times the moves in the market during such times were too random and gap happy to do so intelligently. The bottom line is that I should have done more....I need to do more. I need to get out my 1 trick pony routine especially when macro conditions make a turn for the worse because I know my existing strategy won't work nearly well as buying and holding is only successful in bull markets.

There are signs that macro conditions have indeed turned for the worse but the same could have been said this time last year and the year before and they turned out only to be soft patches. We can't blindly assume that's gonna be the case again though. As usual I will defer to the facts and the indicators.

Still at least one more downside scare left

The market is in a strange place right now. On the one hand, there's plenty of indications that longer term, the market is in position to go substantially higher. Look at the move bonds have had both in the short and long term and how pitiful yields are on an absolute and relative basis (i.e. vs earnings yield of stocks), look at the behavior of long term equity fund flows, look at consumer sentiment, talk to your neighbors about how they feel about the economy and the stock market. All of the above suggests that pessimism is very high - that there's a lot of people on the sidelines, the same people whom by the way, are the dumb money by which history shows over and over are pessimistic/scared near major market lows and optimistic/greedy near major tops. But here's the thing though, these contrary indicators pertain to the long term - they will do you no good in timing the ST moves in the market. Which brings me to the ST/IT. I see some troubling signs.

First, I'm noticing the technically inclined types have turned bullish, you know, the ones that trade based upon momentum indicators, breakouts of "key resistance levels" or moving averages, ect. In the past 2 summers, I've seen such folks turn bullish after a bounce and it ended up marking a ST top or close to one. The "Rev Shark" over at realmoney.com for example is bullish.  These people are weak holders easily shaken out and so when you have a lot of these butt sniffer types long at the same time, the market is vulnerable to a sharp drop as they tend to stampede for the exits at the first hint of weakness. I'm not sure if Friday was the beginning of this stampede but I'm reasonably sure that you'll be able to buy the market at lower prices sometime in the next month or two. Confirming the anecdotal evidence I'm seeing is the latest reading from NAAIM which showed a jump in long exposure to 63%. That number is not alarming on an absolute basis but it's high enough to suggest the market is vulnerable to at least a significant pullback. Next you have the VIX. At 17, it's not exactly the most ideal time to be enthusiastic about the market if you look at recent history. What's more troubling is that the VIX actually closed in the red today despite the market weakness. That's a sign of complacency. Lastly, there was a spike in inflows this week to the same degree which shortly preceded the last ST peak in mid June.

The way the market has been trading reminds me a lot of the flash crash aftermath of 2010 and the period we're in right now reminds me of early August 2010 where the market was forming a ST peak and I noticed pretty much the same conditions.


There's obviously plenty of things that could happen to scare weak longs. The main thing I'd be concerned about are signs that economic weakness is gathering stream in the US. We saw the weakest ISM manufacturing index reading in 3 years registered last week coming in just under 50. Regardless, whatever the catalyst may be, the market is vulnerable in the ST because it's ST overbought and there's weak longs jumping in - a combination that seldom works well in the end. 

Weekend Ramblings

Sad day for me as my beloved Azzuri took a beating by Spain and lost the Euro finals 4-0. It was a great run and nobody expected them to get this far but too bad they couldn't put in a better performance.  Italy played Spain in their first game of the tournament tying them 1-1 and played good enough to win that game. So, how do you figure they get blown away 4-0 the second time around? It looked mainly like fatigue to me, exacerbated by some poor player selection decisions by the coach. Italy had only 2 days rest vs 3 for the Spanish and as a soccer player I can tell you that this one extra day can make a huge difference. Now, don't get me wrong here...Spain is the superior team but if you're going to stand a chance at beating a superior opponent just one time, you need to be playing at your best and the Italians were not and I speculate a large part of that was due to lack of recovery time after their emotional win over Germany. I'll say this though...I don't think I'll even see another team like Spain dominate soccer the way they have been during the past 5 years. 3 major tournament wins in row has never been done before and they will probably have a decent shot at making it 4 in a row at the World cup in 2014.

Anyhow, lets talk markets. I stated that there was potential for fire works with the EU summit in one direction or the other and boy was there ever. Expectations were quite low heading into the summit which caught shorts flat footed. So, were the summit announcements significant enough to warrant that rally? I'm not smart enough to know with a reasonable amount of certainty whether what they proposed is the answer to the problems in Europe. It seems dubious that one meeting could solve everything doesn't it?  It certainty addresses one of the three criteria I outlined recently to make me confident the worst would be over which is bank recapitalizations. From the looks of it though, it seems more like a stop gap measure as opposed to a LT solution but it could at least buy some time or be part of a larger number of steps to finally once and for all put their European fiasco to bed. But again, I'm not even close to being an expert in these kind of things.  What I do know though is that all the EU summit provided was talk and no action, but this talk certainly was significant enough to make the shorts scramble because this summit seemed so hopeless. 

I have my doubts that Friday's rally was the all clear signal that the correction has ran its course even if it goes higher from here. Prior to this ramp, I talked about how the indicators I tracked were a mixed bag with some key holdouts not giving the green light. Heading into Friday though, sentiment improved more in favor of the bulls as AAII showed almost a 2:1 ratio of bears vs bulls which in the past if often followed by at least a ST rally. Also there was a large outflow last week which was about the same size as the inflow at preceded the ST peak the market made about 10 days ago. Of course, you would not have been able to capitalize on this sentiment data much because the market gaped up huge on Friday. On a more larger scale though, I still think that weren't not out of the woods just yet. If this rally is "real" and is the start of another 30% advance like we saw coming out of the correction bottoms of 2010 and 2011, the market should show a change in character and not give you "convenient" entry points if you want to jump back in....i.e. a grinding but relentless uptrend with no sizable dips. 

I suspect this market will still be treacherous for both bulls and bears alike for a while longer. As usual though, I'll take my cue from Mr. Market. 

Weekend Ramblings

I said I was going to talk about the bear case. I'm going to do so with respect to indicators and fundamental issues which pertain to the ST/IT. If you want to read about the long term, financial collapse bear case which oozes in dogma from self righteous "intellectual" pessimists,  there are plenty of sources you can find, be it zerohedge, the media and the majority of stock market blogs out there. Here's the thing though....the doomsday bear case is no longer the contrarian case it was 12 years ago when being a doomsday bear meant being in the minority. I remember those years very well as I was one of them. But if you're a bear now you're probably in agreement with how your neighbor feels and odds are he/she hasn't made money in the markets. And if you listened to the guys at zerohedge and the rest, you would be just about broke by now. Basically, the doomsdayers have either outright or implied you make 3 trades over the past few years: 1) short stocks 2)short US government bonds 3)Buy gold. Only one out of 3 has been right and has not made up for the beating you would have taken shorting stocks and bonds. 


One of the important things I've learned over the years is that the comfortable, easy trade is seldom the right one. By in large the correct posture in the market over the past few years has been to be an optimist and to be one has not been easy. Everything from the media, the headlines and the flashbacks of 2008 has been telling you to do otherwise. But, is there a weakness in contrarian theory and therefore a possbility for the bears to end up being right? Yes there is. You have to be careful not to be contrarian for contrarian sake or what I like to call being a "smartass" contrarian. If I predict grass will turn blue soon because everyone believes it's green; that's an extreme example of being a smartass contrairan. If something is fact, or an event is pretty much assured to happen (close to fact) being a contrarian won't work very well. So, on that note, is the economy "doomed" to collapse? If that's the case, then no amount of contriansim is going to help the bulls. I happen to believe we're not doomed like so many out there think. This is not to say that things can't go wrong but rather that I believe there are "outs"  as they say in poker.  As bad as the doomsdayers are trying to convince you of the end of the world,  and despite all the turmoil and the negatives out there, earnings in the SPX have been making record high after record high, balance sheets are flush with cash and companies have been refinancing their debts at historically interest rates. I think there's a good chance we will grow our way out of our "debt" problem. Where will the growth come from? It's often not clear untill after the fact and it often takes a leap of faith to believe it's possible like it did in previous downturns like in the early 80's and 90's. As a starter, how about the opportunities that can result from the abundance of nat gas discoveries in North America such as nat gas powered vehicles, LNG exporting, nat gas to diesel conversion plants, and who knows what else? 

The bottom line is that for me...I'm looking at the glass as half full as opposed to half empty because to be a grumpy gus means I'm going to be in agreement with guys like my cousin Tom  (and just about every joe blow who know nothing about finance or economics). I know from experience that fading guys like my cousin is the correct thing to do to be a winner in the market longer term. At the same time though, I don't want to be biased either. But it's because of guys like my cousin that no mater how bleak things seem, there's a good chance that somehow, someway there will be a happy ending to this.

I digress. Let's talk about some things pertaining to ST/IT which look worrisome to me. First off is the VIX. We saw it get as high as 27.5 during this correction without much spiky behavior and now it's back to 18 after the little bounce we've had since the lows in early June. I don't think we neccessarily have to see a VIX of 40+ like we did in the last 2 summers to mark a bottom, but I'd like to at least see more spiky behavior. Maybe I'm getting too finicky about this. Next is the Rydex ratio. It has remained stubbornly too high during this correction. Every significant correction bottom of recent years was accompanied by rydex traders running for the exits and they haven't done that yet....they've only been reluctantly walking to the exits. With NAAIM they haven't been as stubborn but these active managers also need to show more "risk off" behavior. The put/call ratio and AAII sentiment however, have indeed shown enough fear to mark a major bottom.

With respect to fundamental issues, we are seeing weakness in some of the economic surveys especially with China and Europe and the problems in Europe remain unresolved and appear to be reaching a boiling point. Everyday I hear more and more grumblings about how Europe can only be viable if there is some sort of  fiscal union whereby a central authority can control the finances of each of it's members countries. I agree with this and if this were to happen, then I think Merkel would finally be on board with the idea of a Euro bond...she pretty much said she would be. But can such a fiscal union happen and when? I think ultimately it will happen but before it does, more pain is likely. As Napoleon once said, there are only two things that motivate men: fear and self-interest. Out of self interest, weaker Euro nations have been resisting giving up political control to a central authority hoping that the Germans would cave first and do the euro bonds, but the Germans have made it clear over and over they are not going to cave until they see reforms (to protect their own interests of course). The Germans are in a position of strength while the euro bond beggars are in one of weakness and when things get bad enough, although everyone will suffer, it's the weak who will suffer the most and so out of pain or fear of more pain, they will capitulate first. This reminds me of when the NHL season got cancelled in 2004-2005 due to a lockout whereby the players refused to agree to a salary cap. In the end they caved like I expected, because the owners were in a position of strength while the players in one of weakness. Due to the poor economics of the NHL, the owners wouldn't be much worse off  then they already were if the season was cancelled, but players on the other hand would indeed be much worse off as most earned peanuts playing over seas in other leagues. In the end, the players capitulated and capitulated royally agreeing to a deal that was worse then the one the owners had originally offered

The bottom line with the markets: Expect more range bound markets with the possibility for one or 2 more scares to the downside. The Euro summit this week could result in fireworks one way or the other. Be careful out there. I'm very tempted to make a ST downside bet but it's very treacherous out there and I'll be very picky about pulling the trigger. If in doubt I'll just maintain my core + heavy cash position and wait for this shit to blow over.


  

Another summer game of chicken

First off I'm glad to report that my mom seems to be on the road to recovery. She has beaten the odds. The doctors told us recently that when they first saw her condition they didn't think she'd make it.  They are very impressed with how she's progressed and she should be moving out of ICU soon. There is still a long road ahead in terms of recovery and rehab but now with my mom far more responsive, breathing on her own and able to take some steps on her own as well, it represents a huge, huge improvement from where she was just a couple weeks ago. I don't know what else to say other than we're lucky and thank God. Life for all of us is starting to normalize and for me that means getting back to the markets.

The Greek vote tonight has people breathing a sigh of relief but I had the feeling that it wouldn't be the disaster that many were thinking. First of all, such  highly anticipated "hold your breathe" moments usually don't turn out to be so bad. Think Y2k. Plus, the market had been rallying for the past couple of weeks just like it did prior to Y2k which suggests it was anticipating a non-doomsday result. But let's focus on the bigger issues here. 


Here we are now almost a year later and the same things that were plaguing the market last summer are doing it again.  Last summer I mentioned a few times how I wanted to see some "resetting" in some fundamental factors before I was a confident that the worst was over which included the following

1) Oil price in the 80's

2) All troubled Euro banks recapitalized

3) Emerging Markets switching from tightening to easing mode undoing the flat/inverted yield curve. 

Aside from oil briefly dipping in the 80's, we never did these things happen by the end of the year and because of this and a couple of other things, I was rather slow to embrace the big rally that started in November. Now though, it seems we are closer to seeing the fundamental reset that I wanted to see last year but we're not quite there yet; but if we get there, it means there could very well be more pain before it gets better. A bailout for Spain and it's banks have been granted but it is enough and what are the details? Are there any other troubled banks in Europe that will need bailing out? Probably. Emerging markets, namely China and Brazil, have been cutting rates but it's just the start of what's likely more to come. Let's focus on China since it's the biggest player in Emerging Markets which and has been a large, if not the the biggest, driver of growth during this bull market. 

As you can see, in recent months the yield curve in China flattened to a levels last seen during the heart of the crash of 2008. Towards the end of 2008, China respsonsed swiftly with rate cuts and fiscal stimulus which resulted in a favorable yield curve and their economy responded in the ensuing months which in turn helped kick start the global economy. The yield curve is on the rise again but it needs to rise more before monetary conditions are favorable again for China. Early last year China was worried about inflation as well as an overheated housing market and as a result they put on the monetary brakes. It took some time, but their economy did end up slowing. Since the 2nd half of last year China's economy has been on the down slope with lots of people now worried about a hard landing. For months their hands were tied because of high commodity prices but  now with prices off significantly, inflation pressures are going to be collapsing and that's going to give China and the rest of Emerging market countries the green light to ease more significantly. But, you usually don't see things turn around with just 1 rate cut much like you don't see things turn around with just one hike. It will usually takes a series of cuts or a couple of large ones before they becomes significant enough to impact the economy and then it takes some time before the economy responds. I suspect if we see a series of rate cuts in China and the rest which results in a steep yield curve, equity markets will start sniffing out a recovery and start rising big despite what negative economic headlines may appear. I realize I'm getting a head of myself here....fist let's see those rate cuts happen. 


In the short to intermediate term I don't see much upside in the market at this point. We had a relief bounce which seems dubious because I didn't see a few hold out indicators like the rydex ratio and NAAIM give the green light. Also, we're getting overbought and last week saw a sizable inflow. 


But on the positive side of things, despite all the 2008-type worries the SPX only corrected 10% off the high at its lowest point so far this year and is still over 5% in the green. Here in Canada and with many international markets it hasn't been nearly as good. The TSX is still down 4% ytd. Although upside seems limited, downside also seems limited as well at this point since the market has worked off all of it's longer term overbought condition. At the most recent lows, it was as oversold in both the ST and LT as much as it was during the lows that ocured after the flash crash of 2010. 


So, in conclusion, it seems we could be in a situation that is much like early last summer of 2010 and 2011 whereby the market saw it's worst of the year (or close to it) but had to chop around for months before a sustainable big rally to new highs began.  That chop was killer for both bulls and bears, so be careful out there. 
But could this year be different? Could the grumps who have been crying bear actually get it right this time??? I'm going to examine the bear case in the next post.






   

    

My mind has not been on the market much these days. My mom suffered a ruptured brain aneurysm 11 days ago and has been fighting for her life since. For some odd reason, I've been rather calm throughout most of this ordeal. I think it's a form of denial even though I'm fully aware of the threat to my mom's life. 50% of people who get a ruptured brain aneurysm die either before they reach the hospital or due to complications after surgery to repair it. If you do happen to survive you have a 1/3 chance of going back to normal after multiple years of rehab, 1/3 chance of permanent minor disability and a 1/3 chance of permanent major disabilities. My mom successfully got surgery to repair the aneurysm and has survived the critical 3-5 day period afterwards whereby risks of death are the highest due to swelling of the brain but she's not out of the woods by any means. She's still on life support. Her body has to absorb the blood that's surrounding and covering her brain and that can cause complications. She's been showing modest improvement day by day but it's 2 steps forward, 1 step back kind of thing. She very drowsy and dazed most of the time but when she's having a good day she can respond to commands like squeezing your hand and wiggling her toes and can shows the slightest hint of a smile when you say something that makes her happy or would make her laugh.

Although I've been rather calm since my mom has been sick, numbed is probably the better word, there have been a couple times when I've broken down in tears. My heart is so heavy seeing her go through such a horrible thing, seeing her in the dazed condition that she's in and most importantly her life of soon to be 58 years being seriously threatened. My mom has sacrificed so much for me. I know most children will probably say this, but I wouldn't trade her for anyone. She is as good a mom as anyone could ever ask for. I wish there was some way I could trade places with her for I owe my mom everything.

I see her everyday at the hospital but I know I can't be there all day or I'll drive myself crazy. There's not much I can do. She's asleep most of time anyway and whens she awake she's very dazed.  My dad and my sister were absolute wrecks the first week but they've settled down now. Someone has to be strong and keep a level head and that someone has to be me. Maybe that's why I've been so numb during all this. When my mom got sick I did some research and I knew that it would be a long battle even if she survived the critical first week and so I've been telling myself not to get too low when there was setbacks but not get too high when there was minor progress...an attitude I try to have with my trading and when playing competitive sports.

This has been the longest 11 days of my life. I just want her back